The International Energy Forum (IEI) will hold an extensive meeting in Cancun, Mexico, between March 29th and March 31st. The forum, as part of its broader agenda, will review a report on the future of biofuels commissioned by the forum and prepared by Claude Mandil, former executive director of the International Energy Agency, and Adnan Shihab-Eldin, former acting secretary general of OPEC. The forum, based in Riyadh, is the largest global energy gathering, comprising of nearly 70 countries that include both oil exporting and producing countries, and oil consuming countries. The forum brings together, in addition to OPEC countries and the International Energy Agency, Brazil, India, China, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. The forum's main thrust is that it is a platform for dialogue and for encouraging the member states to provide the most up to date information regarding reserves, production, and consumption, which are then published online, thereby improving transparency. In fact, the production of biofuels increased significantly in recent years, as they were deemed to be eco-friendly while being beneficial to the growth of the agricultural sector and in curbing climate change. Many counties thus adopted extensive programs for biofuel production, and for using it in replacing gasoline and diesel in the transportation sector. This constituted an important challenge to fossil fuels in the most important oil consuming sector. There are a limited number of countries that have wide scale production of biofuels at present (the United States, Brazil, the European Union, China, Canada and India). Also, the total worldwide output of biofuels in 2008 was nearly 79 billion litres (around 80 to 90 percent from the United States and Brazil alone). Furthermore, biofuel production in the United States has been increasing recently, owing to the legislations that were passed and which support the use of this type of fuels. This led to an increase in the United States' share of biofuel production worldwide, reaching about 50 percent of the total worldwide output, followed by Brazil, then the European Union (biofuel production in France and Germany amounts to nearly 75 percent of the total European output). The forum's report indicates that worldwide demand will double between 2009 and 2015, bringing consumption levels up from 95.3 billion litres in 2009 to approximately 183.8 billion litres annually in 2015. The forum's report argues that what helped bring about this quick growth of biofuels is the determination of some countries to diversify their sources of energy supplies, and to produce a larger part of these supplies locally, in addition to their bids to reduce pollution and to give additional support to farmers. Nonetheless, the report warns that these priorities have overshadowed the need to accurately assess the effects of biofuels on the environment, and on the sustainability of natural resources and food security. The report stresses at the same time that with the exception of ethanol produced from sugarcanes in Brazil, the so-called first generation of biofuels was met with many challenges and problems that were not anticipated during the initial interest in developing this fuel. Since biofuel production and consumption are expected to increase in the foreseeable future, the report adds that there is an urgent need to review existing biofuels policies to avoid ‘environmental and economic mistakes' which, if left unaddressed, may lead to further threats to energy security. The report notes in this regard that several countries started reconsidering their current policies and stated goals in the production and consumption of biofuels. According to the report, these countries have already begun to alter their strategies and policies, and among those changes is the reduction of the growth rate of future production levels. The report also anticipates that the second generation of biofuels will be more promising than the first generation. However, the report emphasizes that such progress will require extensive research and development to overcome the scientific and technical difficulties. The report also asserts that some types of biofuels will play an important role in the future among the various types of fuel sources that will be used as transportation fuels. However, setting specific goals for second generation biofuels is premature at present and such goals must not be adopted until extensive studies are conducted regarding the long-term sustainability of these fuels. This is because future generations of fossil fuels must meet crucial conditions, most notably a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to those caused by fossil fuels, maintaining positive environmental externalities, and securing food security in both agriculture and forest conservation. Also important is the need for biofuels to contribute to an enhanced exploitation of agricultural lands, something that is not taking place at present. In other words, the report warns of the negative effects of biofuel production, despite the importance of its potentials in replacing fossil fuels. *.Mr. Khadduri is an energy expert
