Renewables in demand Global installed wind capacity would reach 409 gigawatts by 2014, up from 158.5 gigawatts at the end of 2009, the Global Wind Energy Council forecast. Wind energy would rise by 160 percent over the next five years, with the expansion led by the US and China. JEDDAH: World energy growth over the next 20 years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP's latest Energy Outlook 2030. BP's "base case" - or most likely projection - points to primary energy use growing by nearly 40 percent over the next twenty years, with 93 percent of the growth coming from non-OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. Non-OECD countries are seen to rapidly increase their share of overall energy demand from just over half currently to two-thirds. Over the same period, energy intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under the projections. The BP's "base case" projections said world primary energy demand growth averages 1.7 percent per year from 2010 to 2030 although growth decelerates slightly beyond 2020. Non-OECD energy consumption will be 68 percent higher by 2030 averaging 2.6 percent per year growth, and accounts for 93 percent of global energy growth. In contrast, OECD growth averages 0.3 percent per year to 2030; and from 2020 OECD energy consumption per capita is on a declining trend of -0.2 percent per year. Transport growth is seen to slow because of a decline in the OECD. The region's total demand for oil and other liquids peaked in 2005 and will be back at roughly the level of 1990 by 2030. Toward the end of the period, coal demand in China will no longer be rising and China is projected to become the world's largest oil consumer. The report said diversification of energy sources increases and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is seen to increase from 5 percent to 18 percent. Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. Fossil fuels' contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83 percent to 64 percent. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for 9 percent of global transport fuels. The BP Energy Outlook 2030 is the first of BP's forward-looking analyses to be published, after 60 years of producing definitive historical data in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. In launching the BP Energy Outlook 2030, Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said: "The issues covered in this document are huge ones – the effort to provide energy to fuel the global economy, sustainably, in an era of unprecedented growth. I believe one of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to inform the debate on energy, and now on climate change." "What producers, governments and consumers all want is secure, affordable and sustainable energy. But on a global scale, this remains an aspiration. And to meet that aspiration over the next two decades, we need smart, market-oriented policies to deliver the energy we need in a manageable way - without inhibiting economic development or jeopardizing the improvements in living standards now being experienced by billions of people worldwide." Biofuels production is expected to reach 6.7 mmbpd by 2030 from 1.8 mmbpd in 2010 and will contribute 125 percent of net non-OPEC supply growth over the next 20 years. Continued policy support, high oil prices, and continued technological innovations all contribute to the rapid expansion. The US and Brazil will continue to dominate biofuel production with 76 percent of total output in 2010 but falling to 68 percent in 2030 as output from Asia-Pacific begins to rise. "The global fuel mix continues to diversify - but for the first time, non-fossil fuels will be major sources of supply growth," Rühl noted. OPEC's share of global oil production is set to increase to 46 percent, a position not seen since 1977. At the same time, oil and gas import dependency in the US is likely to fall to levels not seen since the 1990s, because of improved fuel efficiency and the increased share of biofuels. Global consumption growth is also impacted by higher oil prices in recent years and a gradual reduction of subsidies in oil-importing countries. The fuel mix changes over time, reflecting long asset lifetimes. Oil, excluding biofuels, will grow relatively slowly at 0.6 percent per year. Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with more than three times the projected growth rate of oil at 2.1 percent per year. Coal will increase by 1.2 percent per year and by 2030 it is likely to provide virtually as much energy as oil excluding biofuels. The strong carbon policy drive in OECD countries risks being more than offset by growth in emerging economies. Wind, solar, biofuels and other renewables continue to grow strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2 percent now to more than 6 percent projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9 percent of transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total energy consumption. "The slowing of growth in total energy in transport is related to higher oil prices and improving fuel economy, vehicle saturation in mature economies, and expected increases in taxation and subsidy reduction in developing economies," said Rühl. "In percentage terms, oil demand is reduced the most in the power sector (-30 percent) because this is the easiest oil to displace with gas or renewables and is the sector most likely to employ carbon pricing.' Moreover, the report said "the key focus of the policy case is to reduce dependence on carbon intensive fuels. This can be achieved through a wide range of policy instruments, including various ways of putting a price on carbon." Global emissions would peak just after 2020, but will still be 20 percent above 2005 levels. "The emissions path is still expected to be well above the International Energy Agency's 450 Scenario 1.
