New York-It is necessary for Arab leaders meeting at the Arab Summit in Sirt – as well as for those not attending it – to closely examine the map of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as it appears on the international scene today. It is their duty to be aware of anything that might undermine the momentum of international interest in Palestine and in Jerusalem, because such interest terrifies Israel more than the deterioration of US-Israeli bilateral relations. It is their responsibility to build upon international near-unanimity in opposing Israel's escalatory and settlement-building measures by supporting such unanimity with everything that is required of them, especially within the framework of encouraging the proximity talks sponsored by the United States between the Palestinians and the Israelis. They must do this even if Israel continues to disregard the international aspect and moves forward with its settlement-building plans which have been internationally rejected. This way the Arabs would leave for Israel the opportunity to clash with the international community, as such a clash would have numerous benefits for the Palestinian side, benefits by far exceeding those of stereotypically disdaining smart and patient strategies, replacing them instead by random decisions wished for and expected by Israel, notably at the Sirt Summit. Israel is also wagering on Palestinian factions falling into the trap of its provocations, so that it may elude the difficult predicament it finds itself in. Yet it seems so far that these factions are aware of the trap, and that they are also thinking about the usefulness of leaving the scene for Israel's confrontation with the United States, as well as with the Quartet on the Middle East. This Quartet includes the United Nations, the European Union and Russia alongside the United States, and China has purposely publicly stated that it supports it and intends to play direct and constructive roles, in spite of the content of the statement it issued at its important meeting in Moscow. The Israeli government is walking the path of clashing not just with governments but also with international public opinion, and also perhaps with Israeli public opinion, which has begun to closely examine the meaning of the direction taken by developments over the past two weeks. Even the Israeli lobby inside the United States seems to show signs of shame, in view of the series of Israeli insults to the US Administration, and of embarrassment, in view of the new formula put forth by Barack Obama's Administration and the US military institution, when they were forced to speak within the framework of “America's higher national interest”. The US President, who not long ago seemed to others in the United States and outside of it to be weak, can today no longer be bullied or be taken advantage of. Indeed, this week he has accomplished a historical achievement and ratified the healthcare reform law, after having succeeded with the help of Democratic Party leaders at passing a law in Congress, in spite of the massive efforts exerted by Republicans and insurance companies to abort it. That is an important prelude to a new phase in the battle of the midterm elections, in the wake of the surprising loss of important seats for the Democrats in the latest elections. What the battle over healthcare reform, which gave free rein to dwarfing Barack Obama and presuming his weakness and ignorance of politics, has shown is that the result of this battle has emphasized another aspect of Obama's personality. He is patient yet determined to succeed whatever obstacles appear before him and seem impossible to overcome. His victory in this internal battle strengthens him manifold, because such a victory has come in the wake of presumptions of him yielding to defeat, withdrawing and retreating. At the international level, the United States and Russia nearing an agreement over a new treaty that would allow reducing American and Russian nuclear arsenals in Prague next month is in turn an important achievement that increases Barack Obama's prominence as a determined leader capable of accomplishments. Those two developments are not to the benefit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had wagered on the weakness and weakening of Barack Obama in order to elude his pressures. Ever since Netanyahu, along with the American lobby blindly loyal to Israel, decided to prevent Obama from stretching out his hand to moderate Islam and to thwart his insistence on resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Israeli Prime Minister and his supporters have welcomed Barack Obama's use of the term “restrain” when referring to settlement-building activity, instead using terms calling for stopping or freezing it. They have welcomed the novelty of having the Palestinian side bear responsibility for “refusing” to negotiate, while the fact is that Israel's illegal settlement-building measures are what led the Palestinians to demand a stop to settlement-building, which undermines the two-state solution, as a precondition to resume negotiations. When the meeting of Arab Foreign Minister in Cairo about two weeks ago issued a decision supporting Palestinian agreement to engage in the proximity talks called for by US Envoy George Mitchell, it was tantamount to turning the tables on the Israeli wager. This is exactly what Arab leaderships should remember when they meet in Sirt or fail to attend the Arab Summit. They should also remember that what can save Israel from its predicament now would be lifelines extended to it from the Sirt Summit or from reckless Palestinian factions. The Israeli government's arrogance has led it to commit the mistake of insulting and underestimating the Barack Obama Administration. Traditionally, Benjamin Netanyahu skillfully deceives sincerity and pretends to the point of elusion. This time, Netanyahu has found that openly stating the truth would benefit him domestically, and he did not take into account the impact of insulting US Vice President Joe Biden in yet another settlement-building slap-in-the-face accompanying his visit to Israel. The series of insults and provocations which the Israeli government has adopted since then, including the insult to Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon in the wake of the meeting of the Quartet on the Middle East, has led to firm and important US and international stances. Indeed, the policies of illegal settlement-building and the series of challenges, provocations and insults has led to a qualitative US decision and to cohesive international stances. At the level of the US-Israeli relationship, it has never happened in the past for a US Administration to address a Jewish organization working as a lobby for the benefit of Israel the way Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressed the AIPAC organization this week, saying that the ongoing conflict and the ongoing current state of affairs “does not serve the interests of the United States”. General David Petraeus, Commander of US Central Command, considered that the present situation threatens “US national interest”, clearly expressing a new formula in the US's approach to the relationship with Israel, especially as the United States and American troops are facing enmity due to the US blindly embracing Israel, even as it violates international law and international legitimacy. At the level of Europe as well, it seems that resentment of Israel has occurred on two fronts. On the one hand, there is the fact that the Mossad forged European passports and usurped European identities in the assassination of the Hamas commander in Dubai. On the other, Europe has fundamentally contributed to formulating the statement issued by the Quartet on the Middle East in Moscow, a new kind of statement that has placed Palestinian and Israeli “national ambitions” on an equal footing, has granted Jerusalem legal standing in the face of Israel's attempts to absorb it, and has in practice laid down the authority of reference required by the Palestinians and Arabs for proximity talks. Once again, the Quartet's statement must be closely and carefully interpreted because it has launched a new role for the Quartet and for each of its constituents, has given the negotiation process a time limit, and has spoken of “monitoring” and of “additional steps” that would be taken by the Quartet when needed. Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon is acting on near-appointment by the Quartet, and he recurrently emphasizes the issues of monitoring and of further steps. He speaks of a “unity of purpose” between the parties to the Quartet, and moves with Israel, Palestine and the Arab Summit, driving forward the four goals agreed upon by the Quartet, namely: that there is no alternative to the two-state solution and to fair and comprehensive negotiations that address all issues concerned with the permanent situation of the territories in question; not allowing provocation to obstruct negotiations and trust-building between the parties; the necessity of stopping negative measures that are being taken on the ground, such as settlement-building, the ongoing Israeli siege of Gaza and the firing of rockets from Gaza to Israel; and the international community and the Quartet in particular taking on an incentivizing role in the bilateral negotiation process. What the Secretary-General should do is incentivize Security Council members to go on visits to the West Bank like the one he went on, accompanied by Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad who explained on the ground the meaning of the measures taken by Israel. Indeed, the Security Council goes from time to time on group visits to regions it is addressing, this in order to become informed on the actual ground of what is happening and to improve its performance when issuing resolutions. The time is highly opportune now for the Security Council to visit the West Bank and Gaza, as the Secretary-General did in a visit that shook him emotionally and morally. Perhaps it would be useful for Salam Fayyad to send out an invitation to the members of the Security Council to go on a similar visit, so that he may also explain how the Palestinian side is implementing the plan of building the institutions of the Palestinian state in the face of the occupation, and how the dynamics of the reality of a Palestinian state has begun to break through to the mind of Israeli public opinion and to make it prepare to coexist with it. It is important for the Secretary-General, the Security Council and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to revisit legal files such as those concerned with the separation wall and with settlement-building. There is a need today to make the necessary preparations to issue a Security Council Resolution that would reassert the illegality of settlement-building. There is need for a resolution that would outline and define the fundamental framework of what the negotiations should result in. The time is opportune for a new resolution that would provide that of the two states with actual content, starting from defining the borders of the Palestinian state on the basis of ending the 1967 occupation, with a certain amount of land-swapping in order to link the Gaza Strip to the West Bank. As for the Arab parties, one of the most important things they should do is to stop dealing sarcastically with an issue of the importance and position of the new US-Israeli relationship. The time has come to put an end to superficial reactions, erroneous conclusions and a naïve interpretation of what is happening to the US-Israeli relationship. The time has come to put an end to the campaign of accusing Barack Obama of “failure”, under the pretext that he has not provided the Arabs with the solution he had promised quickly and on a silver platter. Enough with derision and sarcasm, as the time has come for innovative thinking. The most important thing the Arabs might do today is to build on the positive momentum produced by Israel's obstinacy. Indeed, it is only a matter of time before Israel clashes significantly with the international community, as it is terrified of the fact that Palestine taking up international interest will eventually lead to a tangible result.
