The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has lowered its projections for nuclear energy growth to 2030 by 8 per cent in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, according to dpa. In its annual forecast published in Vienna, the nuclear agency now estimates that 501 gigawatts of nuclear power generating capacity will be installed by 2030, compared to a previous estimate of 546 gigawatts. This represents the IAEA's conservative forecast, based on decisions made by governments and money already spent on new power plant projects. "These are simply the responses of some countries who said, nuclear is nothing for us anymore ...," IAEA energy expert Holger Rogner told reporters. He said that around six countries who had been on the point of going nuclear had reconsidered following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, which has been leaking radiation since it was damaged by an earthquake and tsunami in March. Currently, there are 375 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity in the world, and nuclear power represents 13.5 per cent of the world's energy market. According to the conservative estimate, that share is going to drop to 6.2 per cent until 2050, down from the previously projected 7.1 per cent. While nuclear growth is expected to be driven by China and India in coming years, Germany's decision to phase out nuclear power and Japan's review of its energy policies led to the downward revision. Rogner said that it is unlikely that many countries will be able to follow Germany's path. "Other countries are not necessarily in the affluent situation of Germany," he said. The IAEA also issued a high estimate of 746 gigawatts for 2030, not taking into account possible financial restrictions to building new power plants.
