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Malawi plots risky economic course amid political unrest
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 19 - 08 - 2011


Malawi's government begrudgingly unveiled
its currency devaluation scheme this month, aimed at getting
inflation under control and its fiscal health back on track, but the
risky move comes as the country faces political unrest, according to dpa.
After 19 people were killed in July in protests against the
scarcity of basic commodities and rising unemployment, President
Bingu wa Mutharika issued a stern warning to civil society groups who
were thinking of holding another round of demonstrations.
"The government will find you, wherever you are hiding," he said
on state television. Protesters soon called off their plans and
allowed UN mediators to step in this week, in an effort to bridge the
political gap. But the political and economic concerns remained.
The cost of bread immediately soared after central bank chief
Perks Ligoya announced the currency plans.
"Basically, it is to do with the devaluation of the kwacha as well
as rising transport costs," said Mahesh Josyabhatla, chief executive
officer of Bakhresa Grain and Milling, one of the leading suppliers
of bread flour.
The government hopes the fiscal move will help bring back a
stalled International Monetary Fund programme of assistance the
country desperately needs, although a lack of faith in the
government's fiscal competence has hampered these efforts.
Even in these trying times, mixed messages to the world are still
common, as Malawi continues to alienate its friends and loses their
financial support.
While the president once said he would only devalue if the IMF
offered a cushion to control price fluxes - which has yet to come -
his central bank governor insisted knocking 10 per cent off the
kwacha was entirely unrelated to the international institution.
Social economists warned that being a net importer of goods, the
country's poor, who are the vast majority in the population of 15.6
million, stand to suffer the most from the currency's decline. Some
75 per cent of the population live on less than a dollar a day and
HIV/AIDS continues to harshly affect the nation's prospects.
While improving in the last decade, Malawi remains heavily
dependent on food aid. Domestic agricultural land, a prime natural
resource, struggles to bear the burden of a growing population.
The main export crop, tobacco, is facing a bad harvest this year,
adding to existing foreign currency shortages and putting more
pressure on the government to ease controls on the kwacha, which was
pegged to the dollar.
"Theoretically, it goes without saying that devaluation of a
country's currency raises the prices of imports and makes its exports
more affordable in world markets. But what will actually happen to
our imports and exports is difficult to give a precise answer to,"
said economic commentator Desmond Dudwa Phiri.
Manufacturing exports are few, and they too depend on imported raw
materials, lessening the advantages they could gain from a cheaper
kwacha. Also, they must now deposit their foreign exchange in banks,
as part of the overall forex crunch.
Critically, international donors can no longer be relied on to
cover the gaps in food supplies, with European governments
increasingly voicing their dissatisfaction with Mutharika's human
rights record and fiscal management.
The foreign aid, making up about a third of government spending,
is shrinking. London indefinitely suspended its large budget support
worth 550 million dollars to Lilangwe last month, over a diplomatic
row, just before the deadly protests which only sparked further
scrutiny.
The protesters came out amid concerns the president - a former
World Bank economist now in his second term at Malawi's helm - was
failing the economy while cracking down on a fledgling opposition, in
a stark reminder of the dismal days of one-party rule.
In another blow, the IMF has said government's projection of 6.9
per cent growth this year was "optimistic," as the country's
infrastructure was in shambles.
Central bank governor Ligoya tried to calm the restless
underclass, saying negative effects of the kwacha's devaluation would
be eclipsed by the upsides gained from good monetary and fiscal
policies. He also pledged to crack down on traders who raised prices.
But observers, like the Centre for Social Concern (CFSC) in
Lilongwe, fear the gap between meager incomes and rising daily
expenses.
"It is important to recognize that the high cost of living without
tangible coping mechanisms and commensurate rise in household incomes
will force households to choose between basic necessities, especially
the urban poor," said the CFSC.
When people are anyway spending much of their income on food,
further belt tightening, the CFSC warned, "may lead to long term
adverse effects on the nation as a result of inadequate food intake."


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