Cocoa surged to near its highest price in 30 years on Monday as top producer Ivory Coast's Alassane Ouattara declared a month-long export ban to stop revenues reaching his rival for the country's presidency, according to Reuters. In a signal the market was taking Ouattara's call seriously, U.S. agribusiness giant Cargill, which typically buys about 15 percent of Ivory Coast's cocoa crop, temporarily suspended cocoa bean purchases from the West African country. Dealers said the market was confused over the potential impact of Sunday's call by Ouattara -- internationally recognised as the victor of a Nov. 28 election -- given that incumbent Laurent Gbagbo controls cocoa flows out of the country. Ouattara, who is in a hotel guarded by U.N. troops, said anyone contravening the ban, as well as other deals with Gbagbo's government, would be subject to sanctions. But his power to enforce them was in question as Gbagbo, who has appointed his own administration and rejected pressure to step down, was likely to do everything possible to facilitate exports to generate cash to pay the military and state workers. A Reuters reporter in Abidjan saw trucks laden with cocoa beans entering the port, where it was unloaded at warehouses. Some exporters said business was continuing as usual on Monday, while others said they were unloading beans that had been previously bought but would not register them in the system for export, and would be winding down new purchases. "We are going to buy and stock until the situation is clearer," said an Abidjan-based exporter. Exporters estimated arrivals at ports had reached around 843,000 tonnes by Jan. 23, up about 11 percent on last year. But, citing real time data from the port, the Ivorian cocoa sector body said on Monday the figure was higher, with 700,000 already exported and another 300,000 tonnes registered, and therefore ready for export. Buyers swooped on the commodity as a precaution, at one point driving the key ICE second month futures contract, currently May, up to a one-year peak of $3,340 a tonne before it settled at $3,282, 3.4 percent up. ICE second-month cocoa was within sight of its Dec. 16, 2009, peak of $3,514, the highest level in more than 30 years. "The larger players are taking measures to secure themselves. People have bought cocoa and cocoa products to mitigate their risks," a big European cocoa trader said. "Everybody is in the dark," the trader added. A European Union embargo on Ivory Coast cocoa trade is unlikely for now because of the potential cost to the country's population, a spokeswoman for the EU's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said on Monday. "DISRUPTION WOULD BE HUGE" Dealers said that if exporters respect Ouattara's call for a ban, there will be less availability of cocoa on the international market, which could send cocoa prices rocketing. "If it's enforced prices of cocoa will go through the roof," Gary Mead, analyst with the VM Group in London, said of Ouattara's call. "If he's serious, if they can enforce such a trade embargo, the disruption would be huge." West African regional body ECOWAS has threatened to oust Gbagbo militarily, and the bloc's chair Nigeria said on Monday it wanted U.N. backing for military intervention to keep the Ivorian crisis from destabilising the region. Analysts say any such move is some time off and the priority now is squeezing Gbagbo's finances, including cocoa, which provides about $1 billion in revenues per year. In a sign of concern, Gbagbo's government met exporters on Monday and instructed them to continue operations as usual. Some 260 people have been killed in the crisis. While Cargill's decision lent weight to Ouattara's call, some commentators were sanguine as they expected that beans would continue to flow despite the political standoff. Romain Lathiere, a fund manager with Swiss-based Diapason Commodities Management, said: "In the end, the exporters are still going to be able to export. Cocoa will transit to Ghana, or other countries, and will still get out." Two European cocoa industry associations said on Monday they were still seeking clarification of the export ban call.
