Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan's Democratic Party looks increasingly likely to suffer a sharp setback in a weekend election, surveys showed on Friday, putting his job at risk and hampering efforts to curb a huge public debt, according to Reuters. Flagging support for the Democrats, who swept to power last year promising change, had jumped after Kan -- Japan's fifth leader in three years -- replaced his indecisive predecessor last month. Ratings slipped again after Kan floated the typically taboo topic of raising the sales tax and seemingly failed to persuade voters he had clear plan for fixing Japan's economic woes. "Kan has failed to get voters' minds off what a mess the DPJ has made of being in power," said Columbia University professor Gerry Curtis. "They won't be able to get anything done. It will be political manoeuvring for months to come." The DPJ, which ousted its long-dominant rival last year with promises to cut waste and focus spending on consumers, will almost certainly run the government however many seats it wins on Sunday, because it controls the powerful lower house. The party needs a majority in the upper chamber to avoid policy deadlock and begin taking steps to reduce a public debt already about twice the size of GDP, the worst among advanced countries. Surveys by the Nikkei, Yomiuri and Asahi newspapers showed the DPJ would likely win around 50 or even fewer of the 121 seats up for grabs in the 242-member chamber -- well short of Kan's target, and a drop from its current 54 seats. That would deprive the DPJ and its tiny coalition partner, the pro-spending People's New Party, of a majority in the upper house. The Democrats would be forced to seek new allies, hampering the government's ability to forge ahead with the fiscal reform that Kan has put at the heart of his campaign. The DPJ's current coalition partner opposes raising the 5 percent sales tax any time soon, as do some potential allies. Other opposition parties agree a hike is inevitable but would probably be reluctant to help out the rival DPJ, which has not yet mapped out any detailed tax reform proposals. PM VULNERABLE TO CHALLENGE A showing of fewer than 50 seats would leave Kan vulnerable to a challenge from powerbroker Ichiro Ozawa -- a critic of his sales tax proposal -- ahead of a September party leadership vote. "If they go below 50, the mass media and Ozawa will make a fuss," said independent analyst Hirotaka Futatsuki. But few expect Kan, a 63-year-old former grassroots activist, to quit without a fight, and Kyodo news agency quoted Democratic Party Secretary-General Yukio Edano as saying the premier would stay on regardless of the poll outcome. The Japanese government bond market had rallied last week in part on fiscal reform hopes. The rally has since fizzled on expectations the DPJ could fall well short of its election goal, although many expect that debate on a possible sales tax rise will persist now that Kan has raised the long taboo topic. If the ruling party fails to reach its target, yields would likely rise, said Shinji Nomura, chief fixed-income strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities. The Asahi newspaper said the DPJ could win fewer than 50 seats, but gave a range of 42 to 57, reflecting close races in many districts and a hefty chunk of voters still undecided. "I had a lot of hopes for Kan, but the way he brought up the sales tax idea was really bad," said Toshimitsu Kinjo, 54, who works at small publishing firm and has yet to make up his mind. "As they keep saying in the media, there are other things that should be done first," added Kinjo, who said he had voted for the DPJ last year but was now undecided. "Kan is a more practical politician than Hatoyama and I thought he could run the government well, but then he came up with the sales tax talk." Political parties have also struggled to grab voter interest in Japan's second national election in less than a year, with a betting scandal hitting the national sport of sumo, the World Cup soccer tournament and even heavy rain competing for attention. Media surveys showed that both the small pro-reform Your Party and New Komeito, which partnered with the Liberal Democratic Party until its ouster last year, could win around 10 seats, making them attractive potential allies. The leaders of both parties have ruled out an alliance with the DPJ, but analysts say they might change their tune later. The upper house can block bills other than treaties and budgets and the current coalition lacks the two-thirds lower house majority that would let it override the upper chamber. In the latest sign that the Democrats were struggling, the Nikkei survey showed their lead over the opposition LDP had shrunk, with 32 percent of respondents planning to vote for the DPJ -- down three points -- against 22 percent for the LDP and 11 percent for the Your Party. Voter support for Kan's government also fell 5 points to 45 percent in the Nikkei poll, a 23-point drop from his initial rating after taking office last month.
