A closely watched index of future U.S. economic activity jumped 1.1 percent in December, suggesting that growth could accelerate this spring, but the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week, reflecting the scarcity of jobs six months into the economic recovery, two reports said Thursday. The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose for the ninth consecutive month in December. The index is designed for forecast economic activity in the next three to six months, so the December reading suggests the conditions in late spring and early summer. The index has risen 5.2 percent in the six months ending in December, a significant advance from early 2009 but slower than the 5.7 percent growth rate in the six months ending last September. Eight of the 10 components in the index showed improvement last month, with the strongest gains in interest-rate spread and building permits, which are a signal of future home construction. The interest-rate spread is the difference between the cost of borrowing money for 10 years and borrowing overnight. A wide gap between those costs can signal that investors expect inflation to increase or that they expect economic activity to accelerate. The Conference Board's coincident index, which measures current economic activity, rose 0.1 percent in December, the third consecutive monthly gain. Meanwhile, the U.S. Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose last week by 36,000 to 482,000, in contrast to analyst expectations of a small drop. The four-week moving average, which smoothes weekly fluctuations, rose for the first time since August, to 448,250. Many economists believe the four-week average will need to decline below 425,000 to signal that the economy is close to generating net job gains. The increase in jobless claims deflated hopes among some analysts that the economy would produce a net gain of jobs in January. The department's January jobs report will be issued February 5. Jobless claims had fallen steadily since last autumn as companies cut fewer jobs. Jobless claims have fallen by 50,000, or nearly 10 percent, since late October. However, employers are still reluctant to hire. The department said earlier this month that employers cut 85,000 jobs in December after adding 4,000 the previous month. November's net increase was the first in two years.
