If the global recession is over, consumers must have missed the memo. High and rising unemployment, low confidence and blown savings have left households in much of the developed world feeling frugal -- and governments scrambling for new ways to tempt them to spend, according to Reuters. U.S. and British retail sales reports coming this week are likely to show consumer spending bounced back a bit last month from September"s weak levels, but it remains lackluster. Without healthy demand, companies will be reluctant to invest and hire, which keeps economic growth in check and puts more pressure on policymakers to do something about it. While leaders are reluctant to propose another big round of stimulus spending with budget deficits already uncomfortably large, it certainly sounds as if more help may be on the way. German Chancellor Angela Merkel told parliament last week that the government should do "everything we can" to foster growth and boost job creation. (For more, see ) Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said he had an open mind about printing more money to pump into the economy, which remained mired in a recession last quarter even though most other major economies resumed growth. And U.S. President Barack Obama has pitched a "jobs summit" for December as his administration searches for new measures to help bring down the 10.2 percent jobless rate. The White House insisted this would not be a discussion on another stimulus package, but Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips saw it as laying the groundwork for another dose of government spending in early 2010. "Interestingly, this is the same timetable we"ve seen in each of the last two years -- policy formulated internally in December, debated publicly in January, enacted in February," he said. "If we do see a replay late this year and early next year, it seems likely to take a bit longer, and meet more resistance than the last two stimulus packages, which moved surprisingly quickly through the legislative process due to broadly held bipartisan concerns over the state of the economy." ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS Concern over the state of the economy is apparent in consumer and business polls around the world. Friday"s Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply, and households were even gloomier about the 12-month outlook. "Rising GDP is all very well, but clearly the only present that American households want this holiday season is a good jobs report," said Abiel Reinhart an economist with JPMorgan Chase in New York. That"s also top of the wish list at the White House and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to give a speech on the economic outlook on Monday. The Fed, the U.S. central bank, remains wary of prospects for a sluggish recovery and has made it clear that interest rates will remain near zero until falling unemployment or rising inflation warrant moving them higher. As for inflation, outside of rising energy prices, there is little sign of it building now, especially with the high jobless rate keeping wages contained. The United States, the euro zone, Britain and Canada are all due to release inflation figures this week, and all are expected to look muted. While that will probably leave central bankers feeling more comfortable about keeping short-term borrowing costs at record lows, it doesn"t solve the problem of high unemployment, low confidence and weak consumer spending. David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto, thinks U.S. consumer shopping habits have changed on a "semi-permanent basis," and if the White House wants to bolster spending it will probably need to put up more public money. "Yes, the government can step in time and again to distort human nature and try to reverse the rising trend in the personal savings rate, but left to their own devices, households are in a thrifty state," he said.
