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German nuclear deal talks seen headed for long haul
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 02 - 10 - 2009


A policy shift on nuclear
energy looks further away under Germany's new centre-right
coalition than originally thought, say experts who are dampening
the industry's hopes for a quick reversal of the phaseout of
atomic power, according to Reuters.
Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives and the
pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), who start coalition talks on
Monday, back changing Germany's exit law to let some plants
operate beyond the time earmarked for closure.
But some experts questioned the resolve of the parties to
push through radical steps, especially in the face of public
opinion which is still against nuclear, and powerful lobby
groups, who are bracing to mobilise their supporters.
"It was clear it would be hard to come to a new consensus
and it would take time. There will be opposition," said Claudia
Kemfert of the DIW economic research institute in Berlin.
Utility shares rose sharply early this week as conservative
politicians said they wanted to stick to pre-election programmes
to help nuclear remain a "bridging technology" until renewables,
which are not yet commercially fit, can play a greater role.
But on Friday, RWE shares traded 4.5 percent below Tuesday
highs and E.ON was 5.9 percent off this week's peak, showing
early forecasts for billions of euros of extra earnings, if
shared with the state, were perhaps overdone.
"A lot of value will be placed on the plants being safe and
that existing controversial views of nuclear will have to be
weighted accordingly," said Sal. Oppenheim analyst Matthias Heck
in reference to the energy part of the coalition talks.
The 17 plants are meant to close by 2021 at the latest.
One option for the government could be playing for time over
the next four years by requiring that seven or so older plants,
presumed to be "less safe", are asked to stick to the closure
schedule laid out in a deal with the industry in 2000.
This would apply to the old so-called boiling water reactors
as opposed to those with pressurised water technologies. The
latter are predecessors of the new generation of European plants
already under construction in France and Finland.
Alternatively, plants from the 1970s could be switched off
earlier and those from the 1980s onwards given greater leeway.
For a table on plant details click on
"The government could ask the four to seven oldest or least
modern units to be closed prematurely and maybe raise the quota
for others," said Holger Krawinkel, energy expert at the VZBV
consumer organisation in Berlin.
"That would give it time to calculate, collect and put to
use any extra profits for the energy companies," he added.
Longer running times will generate huge extra revenue for
the operators. The government has long said this must go into
neutrally monitored funds on a benefit-sharing basis for both
the public and the companies.
Krawinkel's group favoured insulating buildings and electric
automobiles as most deserving of those funds. DIW's Kemfert also
wanted carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to be
included in dole-outs.
The organisation of energy and water utilities BDEW is
already pleading for an even distribution of what could be 7.5
billion euros ($10.90 billion) a year of additional profits,
according to UniCredit Group.
BDEW said energy efficiency must be boosted and energies in
competition with nuclear also need to participate.
Given a narrow majority in the population against nuclear
power, there is no talk of building new reactors on German soil.
And the Green Party and grassroots protestors have vowed to
summon thousands onto the streets if the new government, instead
of creating exceptions, tries to scrap the entire nuclear deal.
On Sept. 5, some 50,000 gathered in Berlin, saying nuclear
energy was unsafe, outdated and its waste problem unresolved.


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