A leading economist who predicted the global financial crisis said today that he expects a slow recovery for advanced economies, according to AP. New York University economist Nouriel Roubini also said that emerging economies may experience quicker, more robust growth. Roubini said he doesn't expect a «V-shaped» recovery, the hoped-for fast bounce back. Instead, he predicts a slower, «U-shape» economic recovery with the risk of a «double-dip» recession if governments don't time the end of stimulus packages correctly. «I believe that the basic scenario is going to be one of a 'U-shaped' economic recovery where growth is going to remain below trend ... especially for the advanced economies, for at least two or three years,» he said at a news conference on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti Forum on Italy's Lake Como. The annual conference brings together top political and business figures. «Within that 'U' scenario I also see a small probability _ but a rising probability _ that if we don't get the exit strategy right we could end up with a relapse of growth and therefore with a double-dip recession,» he said. Roubini said that «it is very tough not to make a policy mistake» between the opposite risks of ending the stimulus too soon _ and sending the economy back into recession _or too late, which could mean unsustainable budget deficits. Of the two, he said, waiting too long seemed the hardest one to avert. «Whether that's highly likely or not, I don't know. I think it certainly is a rising risk,» said the prominent economist, among the few experts to predict the current crisis. Amid the cautious optimism being spread by some politicians and economy, Roubini warned against celebrating the end of the economic crisis too soon. «There is now this belief that the crisis is over, the conditions in financial markets are fine, that banks are doing OK,» he said. «I think too many people are hopeful that everything is fine and unfortunately the road ahead is going to be at best bumpy, if not worse than that.»
