The fate of Prime Minister Brian Cowen and the Irish government will hinge on how badly his party fares in elections today for local councils, the European Parliament and two parliamentary seats, Reuters reported. Opinion polls predict Fianna Fail will suffer its worst electoral performance ever with only around 20 percent of the vote, putting it in third place behind opposition parties Fine Gael and Labour. If the opinion polls prove correct, Cowen could be in trouble. Senior party members could decide the 49-year-old will be a liability in a second referendum on the European Union's reform treaty later this year. "The scale of the losses in the councils will be the test of what will actually affect his leadership position," said Theresa Reidy, a lecturer in government at University College Cork. "If you see Fianna Fail lose 50 to 80 council seats I think that would be a damning indictment of Mr Cowen and I couldn't see him surviving the year," Reidy said. "You would get a summer of discontent." Fianna Fail has dominated Irish politics since the 1930s, but voters are angry at having to pay the bill for twin fiscal and banking crises during the worst Irish recession on record. While Dublin hikes taxes, other European countries have been pump-priming. "They are messing with people's lives," said Tony O'Farrell, a 40-year-old painter in Dublin, after he had cast his vote. "I'm hanging on by a thread." Figures released on Friday showed the number of people claiming unemployment benefit reached a new peak of 402,100 last month . "Everything is going against them at this point in time," Alan McQuaid, Chief Economist for Bloxham Stockbrokers, said of the jobless figure. "I think Fianna Fail are going to take a right hammering and there will be an awful lot of pressure if not for a change of government, certainly for a change of leadership," he said. "You would have to assume that at the very least there would be some sort of a cabinet reshuffle." RESULTS OUT OVER WEEKEND Fianna Fail is unlikely to win either of the two parliamentary by-elections and the government's parliamentary majority could be cut to 51 percent making it more difficult for Cowen to push through further unpopular fiscal measures. Opinion polls are predicting Fianna Fail will also lose one European Parliament seat. However, analysts say a complete wipeout is far from certain and in a Reuters poll, six out of nine economists said a parliamentary election was unlikely this year. The next general election is scheduled for 2012. "They led us through 10 good years. Why knife them now when we have one bad one?" said Brian O'Neill, father of two, who lost his delivery job two months ago. "If it was just Ireland you could say they made a balls of things but the crisis is all over the world." Voting started at 0600 GMT and local media said turnout had been steady so far. Polls will close at 2100 GMT. The results of the local and parliamentary elections will not be known until Saturday afternoon at the earliest. The results of the European elections will not be released until after 2000 GMT on Sunday when polling stations in all EU member states close.
