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IMF expects slow and weak recovery from global recession
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 16 - 04 - 2009

As some major economies begin to show signs of stabilizing, the International Monetary Fund Today warned that any
global recovery from the downturn could last more than three years, dpa reported.
The IMF and its sister lending agency, the World Bank, have
already predicted that 2009 will mark the first worldwide contraction
since World War II. The IMF's latest report, which draws on lessons
from past downturns, suggests that the global economy could remain
sluggish well beyond that timeframe.
Such recessions can last as long as two years, but it takes
another three and a half years on average for economies to recover to
their level of output before the crisis, the IMF said, according to
evidence drawn from similar downturns.
"The fact that the current downturn is highly synchronized and
associated with deep financial crises suggests that it is likely to
be persistent, with a weaker-than-average recovery," said IMF
economist Alasdair Scott, who co-wrote the report.
"The current recession is likely to be unusually long and severe,"
Scott said. "Based on historical patterns, recovery is likely to be
slow and weak."
But IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard warned there were few
similar examples and that the current recession was "very different"
from past cases, making solid predictions on the future difficult.
The IMF will release its full updated economic forecasts - the
World Economic Outlook - next week ahead of a meeting of finance
ministers and central bank heads from the world's top economies in
Washington.
The report comes amid signs that the situation in some major
economies may be stabilizing.


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