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On Russia, the West has the will, but not yet the way
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 07 - 02 - 2009


Where there's a will, there's a way: the saying is
as old as the English language, dating back over 1,000 years, according to dpa.
But while European and US leaders on Saturday agreed that the West
has the will to work with Russia on some of the world's toughest
problems, they are still looking for a way to do it following
Russia's "gas war" with Ukraine and its real war with Georgia.
"We need to find ways to incorporate Russia" into the European
dialogue on security issues, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told the
top-level Munich Security Conference - in a tacit admission that
those ways have not yet been found.
Twice in the last six months, Europe has gone on red alert due to
conflicts between Russia and its neighbours.
In August, the European Union spearheaded an emergency diplomatic
push as Georgia attacked its separatist regions of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia, and Russia invaded Georgia in response.
And in January the EU conducted frantic shuttle diplomacy between
Moscow and Kiev as a row between Russia and Ukraine over natural-gas
contracts caused gas shortfalls across much of Eastern Europe.
Those conflicts provoked bitter condemnation in the West, with the
EU's top diplomat, Javier Solana, telling the conference that the
Georgian war was "a massive breach of the core principle we hold very
dear: the non-use of violence."
But over the same period, Western concerns over issues from the
financial crisis and climate change to Iran's nuclear programme have
led to a chorus of calls for a rapprochement with Moscow - which also
has a permanent seat, and with it a veto, on the United Nations
Security Council.
The United States and Russia "can still disagree (over issues such
as Georgia) and work together where their interests coincide - and
they coincide in many places," US Vice-President Joe Biden said on
Saturday in his first major speech in Europe in his current role.
Even Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose country has
emerged as one of Europe's most vocal critics of Russian policy, on
Saturday called for dialogue with Moscow.
"If we feel a crisis of confidence toward this great potential
partner, we want to learn from them what they plan to do for faith
and confidence ... to make it better," he said.
All Saturday's speakers agreed that the West should reach out to
Russia to try to solve global problems, with the questions of Iran's
nuclear programme, the stabilization of Afghanistan and a global
response to the financial crisis all cited repeatedly.
But any attempt to do so will have to deal with two major problems
which neither European states nor the US have yet managed to solve.
First of all, Europe remains deeply divided over the question of
whether Russia is a potential partner or a potential threat.
"I don't believe modern Russia constitutes a military threat to
the EU and NATO," Sarkozy said bluntly on Saturday.
But it is seen as at least a potential threat in EU and NATO
members such as the Baltic states, which have regularly protested
against breaches of their airspace by Russian military aircraft, and
which viewed the Georgian war with deep alarm.
That difference in assessments seriously weakens the ability of
either alliance to agree on a new policy towards Russia, since any
joint initiative would have to reassure the more sceptical members
without being so aggressive as to alienate the less sceptical ones.
And even if the Western alliances do agree on a common approach to
Russia, they will also have to offer Moscow enough incentives to
cooperate without giving away so much that key European states such
as Poland and the Baltics rebel.
Given the sensitivity in Europe of the question of relations with
Russia, that is an extraordinarily fine line to tread.
But analysts say that the sheer scale of the global problems -
above all, the financial crisis - may yet force a rapprochement.
Russia last year "was awash with cash and felt powerful; today the
country is struggling to manage a financial crisis amid rising
political tensions," the Munich conference programme commented.
And that being the case, the West's best plan may well be to keep
repeating its will to find a compromise - and hope that Russia itself
points out the way.


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