The 10 tropical storms and hurricanes that moved through the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean sea during this busy hurricane season devastated Haiti, Cuba, and parts of the U.S. gulf coast, and conditions are favorable for more storms, experts say. “Conditions are still favorable for hurricanes. People really need to stay [prepared],” said Gerry Bell, the chief hurricane forecaster at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Forecasters had predicted the season, which ends November 30, could produce up to 18 tropical storms, and the warm ocean temperatures, low wind shear, and other factors that contribute to the formation of serious storms are still in place. Hurricanes feed on warm water, and water in the Atlantic and Caribbean is warmer than usual by 0.5 to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Bell said. Areas of cooler water, drawn from deep below the surface by the passage of powerful hurricanes like Ike and Gustav, have appeared around Cuba and in the Gulf of Mexico, but they are not likely to impact any future storms. Wind shear—the difference in wind speeds at different levels of the atmosphere which can disrupt young hurricanes—is relatively low “Through October 15th, I would not let my guard down on the [U.S.] eastern seaboard at all,” AccuWeather forecaster Joe Bastardi said, predicting another three to five tropical storms. He said he expects busy storm activity in the Caribbean between September 25 and October 15, and said a storm could hit the mid-Atlantic U.S. east coast before then.
