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Soaring oil prices to fuel jump in European inflation
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 29 - 05 - 2008


Inflation in the 15-member eurozone jumped to
3.5 per cent in May, data to be released Friday is expected to show,
ruling out an early move by the European Central Bank to cut interest
rates, according to dpa.
Analysts expect surging food and oil prices will result in the
European Union's statistics office, saying May inflation in the
economy built around the euro rose from 3.3 per cent in April.
The latest inflation data follows figures released Thursday
showing a bigger-than-forecast pickup in credit growth in the
currency bloc with the broad M3 measure of the money supply
accelerating to 10.6 per cent from a revised growth rate of 10.1 per
cent in March.
The ECB sees the money supply data as a key determinate of future
inflationary trends in the currency bloc.
Most economists believe that eurozone inflation has still not
peaked and could climb to as high as 4.0 per cent in the coming
months.
However, economists are more divided on the prospects for interest
rates in the eurozone with some now speculating that signs of growing
inflation could even result in the ECB hiking the cost of money
before the end of the year.
This is despite evidence that the eurozone economy is likely to
slow as the year unfolds with the risks posed by rising inflation
presenting the latest threat to global economic growth.
Either way, a rise in May inflation will push consumer prices
further away from the close to but just below 2-per-cent annual
inflation target set by the ECB.
The Frankfurt-based ECB continues to resist following the moves by
the world's other leading central banks, notably the US Federal
Reserve, towards lowering borrowing costs.
Instead, the ECB has continued to talk tough on the threat posed
by renewed inflationary pressures.
Since the ECB's last meeting earlier this month, oil has hit a
record high of 135.09 dollars a barrel.
Eurozone interest rates have been on hold at four per cent since
June last year with the ECB sitting tight on monetary policy despite
the turmoil that emerged in financial markets as a result of the US
mortgage market crisis.
The prospects of another rise in eurozone inflation also came in
the wake of German data released Wednesday showing inflation in
Europe's biggest economy rising from 2.6 per cent in April to 3.0 per
cent in May. Economists had predicted a rise in German May inflation
to 2.8 per cent.


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