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World food prices set to fall from current record but will remain high
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 29 - 05 - 2008


World food prices are set to fall from
current peaks in the coming years but will remain
«substantially above» average levels from the past
decade, a report said Thursday, according to AP.
The world's poorest nations are most vulnerable _
particularly the urban poor in food-importing countries _
and will require increased humanitarian aid to stave off
hunger and undernourishment, according to a joint
agricultural report by the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development and the U.N. Food and
Agriculture Organization said.
«Rising prices now translate, unfortunately, as an
increase in hunger and civil strife. Uncertainty rules and
our people are worried,» FAO chief Jacques Diouf told a
Paris news conference.
OECD head Angel Gurria, at his side, added: «The end of
cheap food in a world where half the population lives with
less than two dollars a day is a source of grave concern.»
High oil prices, changing diets, urbanization, expanding
populations, flawed trade policies, extreme weather, growth
in biofuel production and speculation have sent food prices
soaring worldwide, trigging protests from Africa to Asia
and raising fears that millions more will suffer
malnutrition.
«There is a real need to foster growth and development in
poor countries and to assist in developing their
agricultural supply base,» said the report, based on a
forecast of the cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, milk and
dairy products markets for the period 2008 to 2017. It
reflects agriculture and trade policies in place in early
2008 and includes an assessment of the biofuels markets for
bioethanol and biodiesel.
Despite the prices hikes, general price levels have
remained «remarkably stable,» suggesting that inflation
in the coming decade will «remain low,» the report says.
«We do not expect the current price levels to last. But
the average of most agricultural commodity prices over the
next 10 years will still exceed the average of the previous
decade by 10 to 50 percent, depending on the commodity,»
Gurria said.
Compared with the previous decade, the report said average
prices from 2008-2017 for beef and pork will rise 20
percent; sugar around 30 percent; wheat, maize and skim
milk powder 40 to 60 percent; butter and oilseeds more than
60 percent; and vegetable oils over 80 percent.
Besides investing in agriculture, the report recommends
helping poorer countries diversify their economies and
improve governance and administrative systems.
The two international bodies also urged governments to
rethink trade-restricting policies such as protecting
domestic producers through high price support, export taxes
and trade embargoes.
Gurria also called for the «swift and ambitious»
conclusion of the Doha trade talks.
«As yields return to normal and farmers respond to higher
prices, supply will expand and bring prices down,» he
said. «That, in turn, will tone down the panic reactions
both by market participants and by some governments, which
have contributed to exacerbate prices.»
«But after the 'spike in the hike' disappears, the more
permanent factors will come into play,» he said, noting
high oil prices and growing biofuel production.
The report says demand for biofuels has boosted demand for
grains, oilseed products and sugar at a time when stocks
are lower.


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