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EU leaders outline security threats from climate change
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 14 - 03 - 2008


EU leaders pledged Friday to put
climate change's impact on global security high on the
international agenda and warned of dire consequences unless
global warming is curbed, according to AP.
The leaders emerged from a two-day summit calling climate
change a «threat multiplier» bound to worsen tensions and
instability through loss of arable land, water shortages,
diminishing food and fish stocks, more frequent flooding,
prolonged droughts and scarcer energy resources.
«We need to develop a better understanding of the
implications of climate change for European foreign and
security interests,» British Prime Minister Gordon Brown
said.
The EU leaders issued a report that said climate change
will trigger not only humanitarian crises, but also
political and economic instability, border disputes, ethnic
tensions and «environmentally-induced» migration of
millions of people from Africa and the Middle East to
Europe.
The immediate trigger for the report was the shock to EU
capitals in early 2006 when Russia interrupted gas
deliveries to Western Europe in a transit pricing dispute
with Ukraine.
The report is meant to bolster Western Europe's appeal to
the U.S. and other polluters to commit to a global deal on
greenhouse gas emissions after 2012 when the current accord
_ the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 that Washington signed but
never ratified _ expires.
The EU leaders said given their commitment to
multilateralism the EU was «in a unique position» to lead
the global fight against climate change. Their report gave
this regional breakdown of how climate change can affect
security:
_ AFRICA: In North Africa and the Sahel, increasing
drought and land overuse will degrade soils leading to a
loss of 75 percent of arable, rain-fed land. The Nile Delta
could face a sea-level rise and salinization in
agricultural areas that may affect 5 million people by
2050. In southern Africa, droughts will trigger poor
harvests causing millions to face food shortages. Migration
to Europe is likely to intensify.
_ MIDEAST: Two-thirds of the Arab world depends on water
sources outside their borders. The Jordan and Yarmuk rivers
may diminish, affecting Israel, the Palestinian territories
and Jordan. Existing tensions over access to water are
almost certain to intensify. Israel's water supply may fall
by 60 percent this century. Significant decreases in water
availability may hit Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia.
_ SOUTH ASIA: Sea-level rise may threaten millions as 40
percent of Asians _ almost 2 billion people _ live within
60 kilometers (40 miles) from a coastline. Water stress,
loss of agricultural output will make it difficult to feed
Asia's growing population. Changes in the monsoon rains and
decrease of melt water from the Himalayas will affect more
than 1 billion people.
_ CENTRAL ASIA: Increasing water shortages are already
noticeable. The glaciers in Tajikistan lost a third of
their area in the second half of the 20th century.
Kyrgyzstan has lost more than 1,000 glaciers in the last 40
years.
_ LATIN AMERICA, CARIBBEAN: Salinization and
desertification will lead to decreasing productivity of
crops, livestock. Increases in sea surface temperature will
have adverse effects on coral reefs. Changes in rainfall
and disappearing glaciers are projected to reduce water
levels in the Andes region. Countries in the Caribbean and
the Gulf of Mexico are already increasingly affected by
hurricanes.
_ THE ARCTIC: The rapid melting of the ice caps opens new
waterways and trade routes. Easier access to oil and other
resources may threaten international stability.


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