Iraq is sliding toward civil war, and is likely to divide eventually along ethnic lines, Britain's outgoing ambassador to the country warned in a memo to Prime Minister Tony Blair, according to a news report Thursday. William Patey, who left his diplomatic post in Baghdad last week, said in the confidential report that the situation in Iraq could remain volatile for the next decade, the British Broadcasting Corp. said. The diplomat sent the memo to Blair, Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett and other leading legislators and military commanders, BBC reported. Britain's Foreign Office said it was department policy not to comment on leaked documents, but acknowledged that Patey had set out similar views in a radio interview last week. «The prospect of a low-intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy,» the BBC quoted Patey's memo as saying. «Even the lowered expectation of President (George W.) Bush for Iraq _ a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror _ must remain in doubt.» Patey's diplomatic cable claims that Iraq's «position is not hopeless,» but warns that the country is likely to remain «messy and difficult» for the next five to 10 years, the BBC said. He also warned that to avoid a descent into civil war, there must be greater effort directed at policing militia groups, including the Mahdi Army.
