term economic growth is assured," said economist Joel Popkin, author of the report. The findings come amid deep financial crises and huge job losses at giant U.S. automakers General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. and long-standing angst about sluggish U.S. job creation during three years of fast economic growth and fat corporate profits. Even though it stressed the United States retained its leadership in research and development, Popkin's study outlined five warning signs. U.S. manufacturing output, while at an all-time high, rose only 15 percent since the last recession -- half that of the average bounceback from all recessions since World War Two. Manufacturing capacity remains underused and investment in new plants and machinery is lagging. They have risen at just half the pace of recoveries over the past 50 years, the study said. The U.S. share of world trade in manufacturing fell to 10 percent in 2004 from 13 percent in the 1990s and it now runs a trade deficit in so-called advanced technology products amid an ebbing share of trade in high value-added goods. U.S. manufacturers also face a shortage of skilled workers as a growing perception of unstable employment in the sector offsets the attraction of relatively better pay, it said. While the United States still accounts for some 40 percent of all R&D spending in the industrial world, U.S. growth in this area has averaged only about 1 percent annually in real terms since 2000, Popkin's study showed. Gains in U.S. productivity were the one "ray of light" -- boosting living standards and keeping inflation and interest rates low, said the Manufacturing Institute's Jasinowski. He said manufacturing productivity had surged 24 percent since the 2002 recession, or 70 percent faster than the average productivity jump following the last five recessions. But Jasinowski said fostering a better-skilled, motivated work force must still be at the top of the agenda if the productivity gains are not to be lost overseas. "The broadening shortage of skilled workers threatens our nation's ability to compete in today's fast-paced and increasingly demanding global economy and will only worsen as the baby boomers retire," he added."
