The global cost of a possible outbreak of bird flu will be between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion, the World Bank said on Friday in a final estimate to be presented to donors in Beijing next week, Reuters reported. The bank said the largest costs are likely to be in East Asia and the Pacific region, followed by Europe and Central Asia and then Africa. The global lender has been charged with calculating how much funding will be needed to deal with any widespread outbreak of avian flu, as donors prepare to meet on Jan. 17-18 for a formal pledging session. The H5N1 bird flu virus has jumped from birds to humans and killed at least 78 people, mostly in east Asia but including three in Turkey. Tens of millions of birds have been culled worldwide. "The financing gap analysis is only a starting point for the challenges ahead to prepare, appraise and implement Avian and Human Influenza programs," the bank said, adding: "The important step is to work closely with countries on their country-level needs and financing and implementation arrangements." The bank said it had developed the cost estimate with guidance from agencies such as the World Health Organization and the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization. It said it was impossible to anticipate when a pandemic may occur or how severe it could be. "While precise figures are difficult to estimate, the burden on health systems is likely to be considerable," the bank said. So far, human victims of the disease have all been in east Asia until a recent outbreak in Turkey, which has brought the virus toward the edge of Europe. Three infected children died last week in eastern Turkey and 15 more people have tested positive, but officials say their condition is not critical. Scientists say the virus remains hard for people to catch and is spread almost always through contact with birds, but the rising number of human cases raises the chance of it mutating into a form which could spread easily and kill millions. The bank said about $75 million will be needed for animal health support and $157.6 million to strengthen health systems, including $56 million for regional and global stockpiles of antiviral drugs. The World Bank's board of member countries on Thursday endorsed a $500 million credit line for countries needing help and said Kyrgyzstan would be the first recipient.
