and I am certain we can go well beyond marginal improvements. At the same time, we must recognize that economic development also drives social development, spurs technological and scientific progress, and allows people around the world to raise their standards of living. We cannot risk the future of our societies on energy sources some of which may contribute modestly, while others are prohibitively expensive and lack robust and reliable production and distribution systems. I believe that in the long term we will need to draw upon both fossil fuels and alternative technologies. One day, as the alternatives become both technically and commercially viable, they will be in a position to take on greater responsibility for meeting the world's demand for energy. However, that day is not today, nor will it be tomorrow. In the meantime, we must continue to rely on fossil fuels to meet most of our energy needs, even as we accelerate our efforts to improve their environmental, operational and economic performance. Let me now turn to today's topic: oil. In particular, I want to look at the prospects for the upstream sector, global refining capacity now and in the future, a set of environmental technologies that will challenge the ingenuity of our scientists and professionals, and the need for increased investment in petroleum-related infrastructure. Recently, there has been a good deal of media speculation about the adequacy of future oil supplies. However, the numbers would suggest that such alarming forecasts are injudicious. The US Geological Survey, for example, places the mean value of ultimate recoverable resources of conventional oil, including natural gas liquids, at more than 3.3 trillion barrels. Of these, less than a third have been consumed to date, with almost 2.4 trillion barrels yet to be produced. In addition, there are also vast resources of "non-conventional" oil-some 7 trillion barrels initially in place, according to various estimates. Although it is uncertain what proportion of those resources will be ultimately recovered, if advanced technologies could lead to a ten-percent recovery rate on average, another 700 billion barrels of oil could become available. Although 80 percent of these unconventional resources are found in Canada, the United States and Venezuela, at the moment two-thirds of the world's proven reserves are situated in the Middle East. Similarly, a significant share of the yet to be discovered conventional oil is expected to be located in the region. This worries some observers, who fret over import vulnerability and supply insecurity. Certainly we need to acknowledge that a peaceful and stable Middle East will translate into a more secure supply of energy, and that efforts to eliminate tension in the region are more vital than ever. However, advocates of supply security ignore the fact that exporting nations need oil revenues every bit as much as consuming countries need oil supplies. Therefore, it is more instructive to talk about mutual dependence, and to recognize that the degree of interdependence, in all areas of trade and for all nations, will only increase in the future. " --MORE 1358 Local Time 1058 GMT
