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Eurozone recession seems likelier, purchasing manager survey shows
Published in Saudi Press Agency on 23 - 08 - 2012


The eurozone appears to have slumped into a
recession, indicated a key survey Thursday as it showed economic
activity in the region's private sector posting its seventh
consecutive monthly contraction in August, according to dpa.
The London-based Markit research group said in a preliminary
estimate its closely watched purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in
broadly unchanged this month at 46.6 points, compared with 46.5 in
July. A reading below 50 represents contraction.
"The August eurozone flash PMI reinforces the prevailing view of
the economy dropping back into recession during the third quarter of
2012," said Markit senior economist Rob Dobson.
Based on the July and August readings, Dobson sees the currency
bloc's economy contracting by between 0.5 and 0.6 per cent in the
second quarter as the region stumbles into its second recession in
three years.
Leading the fall in the PMI was a slump in the manufacturing
sector, with the index for the region's service sector also
declining.
Worryingly, the PMI showed the rate of decline gathering pace in
Germany, which is the 17-member eurozone's biggest economy.
"Hopes that German economic strength will aid recovery in the
broader currency union were dealt a blow by its rate of economic
contraction accelerating, and further signs that its export engine
has slammed into reverse gear," Dobson said.
However, Dobson said the PMI for France - the eurozone's second
biggest economy - showed signs of stabilizing.
Data released earlier this month showed that the eurozone's gross
domestic product contracted by 0.2 per cent quarter on quarter in the
three months to the end of June after stagnating in the first
quarter.
"In our view, (the PMI) confirms that the decline in eurozone GDP
in the second quarter is likely to be the first leg of a technical
recession," said ING Bank economist Julien Manceaux.


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