JEDDAH: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have the world's least secure water supplies, a danger that heightens political risk in an already volatile region and may even lead to higher oil prices in the future, according to a study released Tuesday. The Water Risk Index, developed by the British risk consultants Maplecroft, found that out of 18 countries around the world at "extreme risk" to their water security, 15 are in the Middle East. The list numbers several key oil exporters, including Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Libya and Algeria, whose water woes could have global implications. The turmoil raging across the Middle East has been ascribed to a host of political and economic problems, among them inflation fanned by rising food and energy prices. Water hasn't factored into the unrest, but experts have warned that the region's lack of water, poor management and disputes over sharing resources may emerge as a new source of instability, the report said. "The prevailing opinion is that water isn't going to be a sole cause for civil unrest or international conflict" Tom Styles, an analyst with Maplecroft, said. "But it could be a contributory factor to these sorts of situations, or the tipping point that causes a breakout." In Syria, the center of unrest was in the southern city of Deraa, which has been flooded by refugees from the country's drought-stricken east. Last September, Olivier de Schutter, United Nations special rapporteur on the right to food, estimated that 1.3 million people had been affected by the four-year drought. The Maplecroft index measures a country's population growth, reliance on external water supplies, intensity of water usage and effectiveness of government policy, among others. By that standard, Mauritania is at the greatest risk, followed by Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt. It also takes into account "virtual water use," which measures the water intensity of imported goods like food, thereby putting the country at risk for water crises elsewhere in the world. Water availability per person in the Middle East is about 1,200 cubic meters, less than 20 percent of the world average. Rivers and aquifers are being exploiting to the maximum if not more. The World Bank estimates that seven countries in the region are over-pumping their aquifers, natural reservoirs deep underground, while water flow has fallen in rivers in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon between 50 percent and 90 percent in the last five decades. Studies by the United Nations project that some 30 nations around the world will be "water scarce" by 2025, up from 20 in 1990. Eighteen of those are in the Middle East and North Africa. "The world's top ranked water conflict hotspot is the Arab region, comprised of the Middle East and North Africa," UN organizers of World Water Day warned Tuesday.
