Saudi FM calls Indian, Pakistani counterparts to discuss developments    Al Hilal thrash Gwangju to reach AFC Champions League Elite semi-finals    Saudi Arabia cracks down on fraudulent Hajj campaigns, urges pilgrims to use official channels    Nammos Amala Resort to open soon with Saudi-Greek designs    Saudi Arabia completes 674 Vision 2030 initiatives, achieves 93% of KPIs as ninth-year milestone marked    Literature Commission inaugurates Saudi Pavilion at Muscat Book Fair    Saudi Minister of Culture holds talks with his Costa Rican counterpart in Jeddah    Alkhorayef praises advancements in Al-Kharj food industries sector    MHRSD: 80% of recruitment offices are non-compliant with regulations    At least 50 Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes across Gaza    Teenage girl killed in French school stabbing attack    Trump claims meeting with China after Beijing denies any trade negotiations    GACA chief chairs 16th meeting of the Steering Committee on aviation's strategy    Saudi Theater Commission launches its Work and Learn Project in UK    The season has begun — and one comment shook us all    Jennifer Lopez dazzles in Jeddah with a Formula 1 performance    Saudi Arabia open to expanded 64-team World Cup in 2034, says sports minister    Average life expectancy in Saudi Arabia rises to78.8 years    Film Commission launches 'Cinema' initiative to enhance content    Famed Philippine film star Nora Aunor dies at 71    Pakistani star's Bollywood return excites fans and riles far right    Veteran Bollywood actor Manoj Kumar dies at 87    Bollywood actress vindicated over boyfriend's death after media hounding    Grand Mufti rules against posting prayers and preaching in mosques on social media    Exotic Taif Roses Simulation Performed at Taif Rose Festival    Asian shares mixed Tuesday    Weather Forecast for Tuesday    Saudi Tourism Authority Participates in Arabian Travel Market Exhibition in Dubai    Minister of Industry Announces 50 Investment Opportunities Worth over SAR 96 Billion in Machinery, Equipment Sector    HRH Crown Prince Offers Condolences to Crown Prince of Kuwait on Death of Sheikh Fawaz Salman Abdullah Al-Ali Al-Malek Al-Sabah    HRH Crown Prince Congratulates Santiago Peña on Winning Presidential Election in Paraguay    SDAIA Launches 1st Phase of 'Elevate Program' to Train 1,000 Women on Data, AI    41 Saudi Citizens and 171 Others from Brotherly and Friendly Countries Arrive in Saudi Arabia from Sudan    Saudi Arabia Hosts 1st Meeting of Arab Authorities Controlling Medicines    General Directorate of Narcotics Control Foils Attempt to Smuggle over 5 Million Amphetamine Pills    NAVI Javelins Crowned as Champions of Women's Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) Competitions    Saudi Karate Team Wins Four Medals in World Youth League Championship    Third Edition of FIFA Forward Program Kicks off in Riyadh    Evacuated from Sudan, 187 Nationals from Several Countries Arrive in Jeddah    SPA Documents Thajjud Prayer at Prophet's Mosque in Madinah    SFDA Recommends to Test Blood Sugar at Home Two or Three Hours after Meals    SFDA Offers Various Recommendations for Safe Food Frying    SFDA Provides Five Tips for Using Home Blood Pressure Monitor    SFDA: Instant Soup Contains Large Amounts of Salt    Mawani: New shipping service to connect Jubail Commercial Port to 11 global ports    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Delivers Speech to Pilgrims, Citizens, Residents and Muslims around the World    Sheikh Al-Issa in Arafah's Sermon: Allaah Blessed You by Making It Easy for You to Carry out This Obligation. Thus, Ensure Following the Guidance of Your Prophet    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques addresses citizens and all Muslims on the occasion of the Holy month of Ramadan    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



Japan power gap could sap recovery
WAYNE COLE
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 16 - 03 - 2011

JAPAN'S earthquake has left a gaping hole in the nation's power capacity that looks set to last months, threatening to make economic recovery far more feeble than hoped.
The first rolling power cuts in the history of the giant Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) have already closed many plants, with Toyota shutting down until at least Wednesday.
Rolling three-hour blackouts have wrecked the clockwork precision of Japan's railways while a thousand schools across Tokyo cancelled classes. Even Tokyo's ubiquitous neon signs have gone dark, a big blow to confidence in a country that lives by routine and order. With a new explosion at a nuclear plant in Fukushima threatening a far more serious radiation leak, the power shortage will not get better anytime soon.
“It looks like Japan could be in a ‘power down' state for a protracted period,” said Stephen Roberts, Nomura's chief economist for Australia. “That's what makes it different from other major quakes.”
“People tend to compare it to Kobe and assume a “v”-shaped recovery, but Kobe never caused this level of power disruption,” he added. “It means any proper recovery could be delayed right out to the fourth quarter.”
Early estimates for the cost of the latest quake run up to around $150-$180 billion, but most analysts have assumed the boost from rebuilding will spark a swift recovery.
After all, the Kobe quake of January 1995 is estimated to have cost around $100 billion but the economy rebounded faster from it than many expected at the time.
While manufacturing production fell by 2.7 percent in January, it climbed 4.4 percent over the following three months.
That largely reflected industry's ability to shift production to plants in unaffected parts of the country. There is certainly still plenty of unused manufacturing capacity in Japan, but far less when it comes to power supply.
Analysts at Australian investment bank Macquarie estimated the earthquake and resulting tsunami took a quarter of TEPCO's total capacity of 65 gigawatts, shared between nuclear and oil. In all some 15 nuclear plants were shut down, and it was not clear how many would re-start or when. “We think power supply shortages and rations are likely to continue in TEPCO's supply area for months rather than weeks,” the analysts wrote in a note to clients.
And the growing crisis at the Fukushima plant brings into question Japan's whole experiment with nuclear power, which provides about one-third of total generating capacity.
“We believe this increases the risk of Japan's nuclear policy being scaled back,” said Macquarie. “But the lack of viable alternatives means this is more likely to relate to safety rather than switching to other sources.”
— Reuters
Nomura's Stephens said there was perhaps scope to ramp up power output at some of Japan's oil and coal plants, though at great extra cost. Japan's increased demand for coal, oil and LNG for generation would also add to upward pressure on resource prices and so to inflation risks elsewhere in Asia.
But even then it was unlikely to be enough to make up the current shortfall in power.
“If this lasts to the summer, which is more than possible, there is no way the system could supply the power for air conditioning,” he warned. “Tokyo in summer, without air con? Doesn't bear thinking about.”
Even the simplest gas turbine power plants takes between one to two years to build, with coal plants generally a lot longer. And that assumes the government could ram through planning permission in a crowded island like Japan.
Still, Japan was lucky to have a potential major supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Australia, where a number of massive projects are underway.
“Any potential switch away from nuclear power is likely to favour gas-fired generation, the most practical low carbon-emission alternative,” said Arnon Musiker, a director in the energy team of ratings agency Fitch.
“Australia is well positioned to meet additional medium-term gas demand,” said Musiker, noting the other traditional suppliers in the Asian region were running into gas shortfalls themselves.


Clic here to read the story from its source.