JEDDAH: Egypt will emerge as its third best economy in terms of economic growth. It's obviously taken the long-view on the country, ignoring the political upheaval it has gone through in the past month, Citibank said in its latest global economic forecast. "We expect a steadily rising growth rate for the next 40 years, averaging 5 percent per annum between 2010 and 2050. Egypt ranked 48th in 2010 as regards real per capita GDP with $5,878," noted Citibank in its report that looks at global economic prospects by 2050. Its population is expected to increase from 84.4 million in 2010 to 129.5 million in 2050 and the population of working age is expected to grow over the same period by 60.8 percent. Provided that productive employment opportunities can be found for the rapidly growing working age population, demographics should be a big plus. But the recent uprisings had at least as much to do with frustration about the lack of employment, underemployment, poor prospects and high income inequality as they had with the desire for more political freedom and proper representation, the report noted. Unemployment, in particular youth unemployment remains very high, the report said. Another indicator of underperformance is the fact that Egypt is one of the few countries where urbanization has stagnated for the past couple of decades around the 44 percent mark. Because of the very fast population growth, this stagnant urbanization rate is quite consistent with the fast growth in the absolute size of the main cities, especially Cairo, and rapid slum formation, it pointed out. "It is clear that the challenges faced by Egypt to become a card-carrying member of the 3G club are daunting. The political revolution that swept aside the Mubarak regime in February 2011 gives grounds for hope, but has not by itself solved the challenge of finding employment for the rapidly rising population. In our view, after the political transformation that is to be expected, will be the right time for far-reaching reform in the economic sphere as well. We are therefore optimistic about the prospects for Egypt," Citibank said in the report. Moreover, Citibank forecast strong growth in the world economy until 2050, with average real GDP growth rates of 4.6 percent per annual until 2030 and 3.8 percent between 2030 and 2050 - as a result, world GDP should rise in real PPP-adjusted terms from $72 trillion in 2010 to $380 trillion in 2050. Developing Asia and Africa will be the fastest growing regions, in our view, driven by population and income per capita growth, followed in terms of growth by the Middle East, Latin America, Central and eastern Europe, the CIS, and finally advanced nations of today.
