Turkey has made forging closer diplomatic and business ties with the Middle East and Arab world a foreign policy priority but upheaval in the region has posed fresh challenges as Ankara tries to look after its interests. Popular revolts against autocrats in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewehere have highlighted the risks and dilemmas regional powerhouse Turkey faces managing relations in an unstable neighborhood. “There is a fundamental incompatibility in the sense that you cannot criticize leaders in the region and make inroads in their markets,” Sinan Ulgen, from the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies think tank, said. In Libya, where leader Muammar Gaddafi has vowed defiance in the face of an increasingly bloody uprising against his 41-year rule, Turkish firms are involved in projects worth $15 billion. Turkey's priority now is to evacuate thousands of Turks working there as Gaddafi's government fights for survival. Hugh Pope, an analyst at International Crisis Group, said that for all the good opportunities for business in the Middle East, the unrest there might be a “wake-up call”, to make Turkey focus more sharply on more vital interests with Europe. “Turkey's long-term goals are best served in its relation with the EU. The EU has its own problems but nothing compared to the Middle East. The Middle East was always going to be risky for Turkey,” Pope said. Last year, 22 percent of Turkey's exports went to the Middle East and North Africa, almost double the share of the two regions in 2004. While Turkey's bid for membership of the European Union has dragged on since formal negotiations began in 2005, Ankara has pursued free-trade accords with Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. It also has signed oil deals with Sudan and purchases around 20 percent of its gas imports from Iran. “Turkey's foreign policy in the region highlighted the role of economics and one of the most pressing policy objectives has been a quest for market share and export opportunities and contracts for Turkish businessmen,” Ulgen said. Construction, textile and machinery companies, often run by businessmen seen as close to Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's AK Party, have won multi-billion contracts in markets after Turkish diplomats opened doors. Turkey has raised eyebrows among NATO allies with its aim to triple bilateral trade with Iran to $30 billion in five years. Analysts noted how differently Turkey reacted to protests in Egypt and Tunisia compared with its response to mass demonstrations in Iran after a disputed 2010 presidential vote. Erdogan was among the first leaders to congratulate Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and there was no public support for the anti-government demonstrators in Iran. Yet the Turkish premier was quick to express support for street protests in Egypt, where there was less trade at stake, and call for former strongman Hosni Mubarak to step down. “In Iran there is as much oppression as in Egypt but Turkey has never opened its mouth on Iran. These contradictions weaken Turkey's aspirations to be a regional power,” Cengiz Aktar, professor at Istanbul's Bahcesehir University, said. “Turkey should be a source of inspiration not only because of its trade and soft power but also because of its model of democracy.” Mindful of national interests, Turkish officials speak of a country-by-country approach in responding to regional unrest. Visiting Tunisia Monday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that, if handled correctly, a democratic transition following an uprising that toppled President Zine Al-Abidine Ben Ali could be a template for change in the region. But many analysts have pointed to non-Arab Turkey as an example of how democracy can flourish in the Muslim world. They note, in particular, how Erdogan's AK Party, widely expected to win a third term in power at elections in June, has moved from its Islamic roots into an electable mainstream party, operating within a secular constitution. Addressing his party deputies Tuesday, Erdogan spoke of principles, humanitarian concern and lessons learnt from Egypt and Tunisia as he surveyed a region in turmoil. “Today we are saying the same things about Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Morocco, Jordan, Algeria, Iran and Iraq, and looking at events through the same lens. “Events in those countries are not identical,” Erdogan added before going on to say: “No matter where they are, we are against people losing their lives, their rights being violated, or their freedoms being denied.” Now protests against autocratic rulers could force Ankara to take sides between governments and their people.
