UNITED NATIONS: Hundreds of thousands of protesters have thronged public squares; slogans have been chanted, banners waved and security forces cowed into inaction; the reviled despot has stepped down or fled abroad. Now what? It's a question not just for Egyptians who toppled President Hosni Mubarak Friday. It has confronted those behind people's revolutions that have overthrown tyrannical regimes in dozens of countries in recent decades. The euphoria seldom lasts long. It is replaced by the challenge of building a fair and democratic society and meeting the expectations of supporters who may be motivated as much by economic hardship as by love of political freedom. Studies show a decidedly mixed record of long-term success for popular uprisings like those that have just convulsed Egypt and Tunisia. “Many transitions from authoritarian rule do not lead to freedom,” said a 2005 report by Washington-based human rights group Freedom House, entitled “How Freedom is Won: From Civic Resistance to Durable Democracy.” “The opportunity for freedom after a political opening represented by the fall of an authoritarian (leader) is by itself not a guarantee of an optimal outcome for freedom in the long term.” Of 67 countries the report looked at where there had been transitions from autocratic rule over the preceding generation, 35 were “free,” 23 were “partly free” and nine were “not free” at the time of publication, it said. Factors likely to contribute to lasting democracy included a strong, cohesive civic coalition before the change, and pursuit of nonviolent tactics by the opposition, it said. Conversely, analysts say, chances of building a stable democracy can be damaged if the opposition cuts a deal with security forces to overthrow a ruler – as some suspect might have happened in Egypt. Daniel Serwer, a former US State Department official, said that in Serbia, demonstrators promised security services they would not be held accountable for past actions if they helped oust Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. “That deal has plagued Serbia's democratic transition, which nevertheless has gone a long way in the right direction,” said Serwer, now with the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “The Egyptians are likely to face a similar problem: they have relied on the armed forces to evict Mubarak. The question now will be whether the armed forces will permit a thorough going revolution,” he added. Some analysts believe chances of lasting change are boosted if a country has at least some history of democracy. This was the case with the Philippines, where dictator Ferdinand Marcos, toppled by mass unrest in 1986, had started off as elected president; and with most of the Warsaw Pact states that threw off Soviet-led communist rule in 1989 and later joined the European Union. Serious violence erupted in only one – Romania.
