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No oil supply crisis over Egypt: IEA
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 02 - 02 - 2011

PARIS: The global oil market does not face any emergency, the head of the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, after crude breached $100 per barrel on unrest in Egypt. "It is not an emergency now," Nobuo Tanaka told Reuters.
"If a disruption happens, we should act," he added, referring to both the IEA and the oil-producing group OPEC.
Even a closure of the Suez Canal would only delay, rather than cut, oil supply, Tanaka said.
World oil prices drifted lower Tuesday, but held above $100 on fears that worsening turmoil in Egypt could disrupt supply flows through the strategic Suez Canal, analysts said.
Brent North Sea crude for delivery in March delivery fell 56 cents to $100.46 a barrel, one day after spiking to $101.73 - which was the highest level since Sept. 29, 2008.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for March, slid 62 cents at $91.57 a barrel Tuesday.
Egypt is not a major oil producer, but is home to the vitally important Suez Canal, which carries around 2.4 million barrels of oil a day – roughly equivalent to the daily output of Iraq or Brazil.
Brent crude hit $100 per barrel for the first time since 2008 on fears instability could spread through the Middle East, which together with North Africa pumps over a third of the world's oil.
OPEC holds about 6 million barrels per day (bpd) of idle production capacity - equal to 7 percent of world demand - that it could tap to fill any shortage. Both Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi and OPEC's Secretary-General Abdullah Al-Badri signaled Monday OPEC had no plans to call a meeting before its next planned gathering in June as markets were well supplied.
The IEA and OPEC have repeatedly differed about demand and production levels with OPEC attacking the West for raising fuel taxes and then asking producers for more crude.
The IEA has a mandate to ask its members, the OECD nations, to release oil stocks in the case of an emergency supply disruption. It also comments on the level of supply needed from top producers.
"What we are asking OPEC is to be flexible," said Tanaka.
"The next OPEC meeting is in June. The Saudis are certainly producing more than they say. I have heard they are meeting in Riyadh. But I cannot prejudge anything right now," he said.
Badri said a meeting of producers and consumers in Riyadh on Feb. 22 was very unlikely to decide on production quotas as it was not an extraordinary meeting of OPEC.
Tanaka also said the Suez canal and the Sumed pipeline were operating normally and added that even if the Suez Canal closed due to unrest in Egypt, it would not create a physical shortage.
The canal authority said Tuesday movement of traffic through the canal was unaffected by ongoing protests.
Tanaka said he had received information that about 1.5 million barrels per day were passing through the canal and the pipeline was shipping 1 million bpd.
"Even if the canal shuts down, (shipments) will go a longer distance, around Africa, the cost will be higher. But it's not really a physical disruption." He said oil stocks in developed countries were at comfortable levels, which would prevent a repeat of the 2008 oil price spike to $147 a barrel.


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