It was in November when Basil Rajapaksa confidently told The Economist newspaper that even the rains come on time “when the king is good”—an unabashed reference to his older brother, President Mahinda, who styles himself as a monarch. Basil might have chosen his words more carefully had he known that Sri Lanka would barely go a week without rain since then. Day after day persistent deluge ensued, assailing different areas of the country in turn. What was first welcomed as the timely onset of monsoonal showers turned out to be freak weather of the worst kind. And it wasn't just the rain. On Jan. 13 , the mercury dropped to 18.8 Celsius in Colombo, the capital's lowest recorded temperature in 61 years! For the most part of two months, the sun remained a weak representation of its usually robust self. In Batticaloa, one of the hardest hit — and usually scorching hot — towns on the East coast, the appearance of a few feeble rays of sunshine last week caused jubilation among its damp, weary populace. “People were out sunning themselves,” said one resident, only half in jest. In an appeal for immediate relief assistance on Jan. 13, the National Disaster Management Center (NDMC) said more than a million people in 14 out of Sri Lanka's 25 administrative districts were affected by flooding. There were 40 recorded deaths, 51 injuries and four missing persons. Among the worst affected were families recently resettled in former conflict areas. They had just been piecing their lives back together after 30 years of brutal war ended in 2009. Vast tracts of land in the Batticaloa, Ampara, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts were swiftly inundated as torrential rains bore down relentlessly. Roads were engulfed in swirling waters; so were private and public property. Infrastructure, a major component of the government's post-war reconstruction effort, was significantly affected and will need fresh, heavy cash injections. The debt-ridden Ceylon Electricity Board alone sustained Rs 100 million in damages caused predominantly by landslides, falling trees and erosion. On Jan. 12, the Batticaloa district received 342mm of rain. The last time it rained like that was in January 1913, when rainfall of 312mm was recorded. At Habarana in the North-Central province, floodwaters rose so high that a baby elephant was washed onto the top of a tree 15 feet in height. Its decomposing body was later found trapped in the branches. People left their homes in droves, seeking refuge in camps and with host families while depending predominantly on handouts of food, clean drinking water and clothing. Schooling was interrupted, not least because educational institutions were turned into temporary accommodation for the displaced. Scientists issued landslide warnings in hilly areas, including in the Kandy district where earth slips killed several people. More evacuations followed. The army, navy and air force were mobilized to save lives and to deliver relief. Nevertheless, many remained marooned till the waters subsided. In the North, a more potent danger lurked. The military and mine action groups warned the public that buried landmines and other explosives could surface in contaminated areas and be carried by the flow to areas that had been cleared. Finally, on Jan. 17, the NDMC issued a notice announcing that the worst was over. Flood waters were receding, the roads were clear and the sun was out, it said. But as the authorities take stock of the trail of destruction left behind by the floods—and struggle with the cost of restoring livelihoods, infrastructure and property—it is clear that any contributions of international assistance remain painfully welcome. Some aid has come in. The European Commission announced emergency funding of 2 million euros for food, water and sanitation and emergency relief items. India rushed sugar, pulses, milk powder, ready-to-eat meals, water purification tablets and mattresses to Sri Lanka. Canada, the United States and Germany also gave donations. UN Assistant Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Catherine Bragg will arrive in Sri Lanka this week to launch a flash appeal for emergency funds to respond to the flood crisis. UN agencies have already pitched in with relief assistance. But with the waters now receding, the relief phase will necessarily have to be replaced by longer-term strategies to rebuild devastated lives. This will not be easy. Crucially, more than 400,000 acres of paddy and 250,000 acres of other crops were damaged. Many small-holder farmers lost their entire crop. The UN Office of the Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs said over 71 percent of paddy cultivation in Ampara district, 90 percent in Batticaloa district and 45 percent in Trincomalee district were destroyed. It said nearly 1,500 irrigation tanks need reconstruction in the Eastern province while livestock losses are also significant, with 240,000 animals lost in Batticaloa district alone. The Food and Agriculture Organization has estimated that around 87,000 farming households need assistance to resume productive agricultural activities. There is now fear of a severe shortage of rice and other crops in coming months, with prices already rising steeply. This will be something the Sri Lanka “king” will have to take into serious account because, politically, the tide has always turned against a prevailing regime when food became too expensive to eat. Economist Muttukrishan Sarvananthan, the principal researcher at the Point Pedro Institute of Development, pointed out that the worst affected five districts — Ampara, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa — could be termed as the “granary” of Sri Lanka. “The foregoing five districts account for around 50 percent of the total paddy and rice production of the country, which is the staple food of the people,” he said. “Therefore, the deluge in these districts will severely affect the output of the main agricultural crop season which lasts from October to March. Naturally, food shortages will result in the rise of food prices. Already consumer prices have started to rise during the last quarter of 2010. The current deluge will intensify the price rise further.” The government may have to import essential food items, Sarvananthan warned. In the meantime, global food prices are also likely to rise as well because of bad weather in many countries. For example, Australia, Brazil and Egypt are also experiencing severe floods. “Therefore, importing food from abroad may not necessarily bring down cost of living in Sri Lanka. In addition to rising food prices, oil prices are also on the rise globally, approaching $100 a barrel of crude oil,” he explained. “This could be a double whammy for an import dependent country like Sri Lanka, which imports its entire fuel requirement”. “I do not think there is any easy way out for the government or the people of Sri Lanka in 2011,” Sarvananthan predicted. “Rising food prices and cost of living would be the order of the day. Since the price rises are due to natural disaster there is not much the people or government could do about it. Of course, the government could subsidize imported food items and/or provide pay rise to public sector employees to mitigate the impact of the deluge.” Such an approach, however, would seriously derail the government's plan to make Sri Lanka the ‘Miracle of Asia', he cautioned. The author is a senior journlist based in Colombo __
