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IEA says high oil prices pose real economic risk
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 19 - 01 - 2011

Oil rig technicians work around the clock to sustain supply.PARIS/LONDON: Oil prices near $100 a barrel pose a real risk to the world economy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned Tuesday, as the global economic rebound led to the strongest growth in oil demand for nearly three decades.
"Recent price levels already pose a real economic risk - something of deep concern to producers and consumers alike," the IEA said in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
Oil prices of $100 a barrel represent an 'oil burden' of five percent of gross domestic product on the global economy, the IEA calculated, and said such levels in the past "have clearly been associated with economic problems.
"Ultimately, oil producers, financial investors and consumers (notably import-dependent developing countries) all suffer under such a scenario," said the report.
However, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) secretary general said Tuesday that world oil markets have more than enough supply and factors including speculation and a weak US dollar have played a part in boosting oil prices,
The comments further underline the reluctance of OPEC to raise output to lower oil prices. Brent crude is trading around $98 a barrel and near a 27-month high.
"Oil prices have recently been driven by technical matters such as events in Alaska and the North Sea. Also, the weak dollar and speculation have added to this, pushing oil prices higher, especially Brent," Abdullah Al-Badri said in a statement on OPEC's website. "At the moment, fundamentals show there is more than enough oil on the market."
Oil prices have draw support this month from the shutdown of a major Alaskan pipeline, which has now restarted, and a brief outage at two Norwegian North Sea oilfields.
Badri also criticized the IEA, which has been warning of the risks to economic growth of rising oil costs, for a lack of consistency in its view of the oil price.
The head of the IEA, which advises 28 industrialiszed countries on energy policy, Monday called the current oil price "alarming" and said OPEC needed to show more flexibility in boosting supplies.
Badri said the IEA needed to be consistent.
"In 2009, when the oil price was lower, the IEA had advised its members that they needed to increase petroleum taxes."
"So why, today, when they are complaining that oil prices are too high, are they not advising their members to reduce taxes?"
Optimism about the global economic recovery and interest from bullish investors have pushed crude prices close to $100 a barrel in recent sessions, levels last seen in October 2008.
Harsh winter hitting Europe and parts of North America, as well as growth in China and other developing nations has also boosted prices.
World oil prices traded mixed Tuesday amid abundant supply in North America and the restart of a massive Alaskan pipeline.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for February, finished the session at $91.38 a barrel, down 18 cents from Friday's close. In London, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in March settled 37 cents higher at $97.80 a barrel.
The IEA said growth in oil demand in 2010 was at one of the strongest rates in three decades, albeit from a low crisis level.
Oil demand grew by 3.2 percent, an increase of 2.7 million barrels per day (mbd) year-on-year to 87.7 mbd, it said.
Moreover, "such demand strength appears to be more related to a buoyant economic recovery than to the frigid weather conditions that prevailed in most of the northern hemisphere in late 2010." The IEA said showed China's oil demand raced ahead 15.1 percent year-on-year in November, driven in large part by government-mandated closures of coal-fired plants to meet pollution targets that spurred use of small-scale electricity generators run on gasoil.
"Total demand has thus reached new historical highs (10.2 mbd), surpassing for the first time the symbolic 10 mbd threshold."
Given that the pace of economic recovery is widely forecast to slow down in 2011, the IEA forecast growth in oil demand to slow to 1.6 percent for a gain of 1.4 mbd year-on


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