A YEAR after Hamas seized the Gaza Strip, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is having to engage both the Islamists and Israel in his efforts to secure a united Palestinian state. Neither track looks promising. The outlook for Palestinians seems little less hazy now than last June 14, when Hamas fighters' defeat of Abbas's secular Fatah forces in Gaza left four million people under rival rulers in two separate territories, both of them beholden to Israel. Having dismissed his Hamas-led government and secured a consequent end to sanctions on the Fatah-run West Bank, Abbas was able to reopen peace negotiations with Israel, which shuns Hamas for its refusal to end violence against the Jewish state. But with little progress after seven months of US-sponsored talks, Abbas has also been reaching out to end a rift with Hamas that once saw each trade accusations of deadly plots against the other. Though as yet there is also little sign of major change. Palestinian analyst Hani Al-Masri cautioned that a lack of discernible movement in the negotiating positions of Abbas and Hamas meant that a more positive tone on either side before the anniversary of the schism may remain just “tactical maneuvers.” Many Palestinians fear that a failure to end the division soon, however, could make it more permanent and in turn render Abbas's talks with Israel on statehood close to irrelevant. “There will be more of a drifting apart,” warned independent Palestinian lawmaker Hanan Ashrawi, who drew a picture of an Islamist-run enclave in Gaza effectively surrounded by Israeli forces and a West Bank remaining in practice under occupation with Abbas given nominal sovereignty in scattered urban areas: “There would be a statelet in Gaza entirely under the security, military and airspace control of Israel, and a series of bantustans in the West Bank,” Ashrawi said, using the term coined in apartheid South Africa for autonomous black provinces. Call for dialogue Several attempts by other Arab leaders to reconcile Abbas and Hamas have failed to heal the rift. Yemen tried to broker a deal in March but efforts broke down in disagreement over whether Hamas should cede control of Gaza before formal talks. A call last week by Abbas for renewed national dialogue was not accompanied by a shift in conditions from either side. Some Hamas officials saw Abbas's renewal of a call for Arab states to mediate as designed to boost his domestic standing in the face of mounting skepticism on his prospects of a statehood deal before US President George W. Bush steps down in January. In the wake of a corruption scandal that threatens to unseat Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and trigger an election, Abbas's chief negotiator said last week it would take a “miracle” to meet Bush's target of a deal by this year's end. But Abbas aides played down the link with the Israeli peace process. They said wider regional developments including Qatar's mediation in Lebanon's crisis and new peace talks between Israel and Syria, as well as Palestinian public pressure and a desire to avert an Israeli offensive in Gaza all played a part in prompting Abbas to renew his call to Hamas for talks. He urged implementation of the Yemeni initiative, adopted by the Arab League, which called for Hamas to end its hold on Gaza and prepare for early presidential and parliamentary elections. Some analysts and officials believe the initiative, however modest, could provide Hamas with a face-saving way of reversing its takeover of Gaza by handing over to foreign Arab officials. Others, however, see little prospect of Hamas giving up Gaza. Hamas leaders welcomed what they saw as a conciliatory tone from Abbas but laid down their own conditions, notably insisting that negotiations should start before any change in the status quo and that talks should envisage concessions by both sides. “The atmosphere should be prepared to allow the beginning of a Palestinian national dialogue without conditions, on the basis of no winner and no loser,” said Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Mediation role Many question how far any reconciliation might go, despite the troubles both Abbas and Hamas face in their separate areas, with Abbas trying to bolster his support base and Hamas anxious to ease an Israeli blockade crippling life and business in Gaza: Ashrawi said the mediation call was useful but the sides see it differently: “One wants to implement the Yemeni initiative as is, the other wants to start from a different basis. There is is hesitancy. That's why you need third party intervention.” Egypt, already involved in mediating a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, has accepted to host talks between Palestinian factions, but it will hold talks with the groups separately first, to improve chances of success, officials said. Analyst Masri said a mutually acceptable package was needed for ultimate success. “If (Abbas's) Palestinian Authority doesn't acknowledge its failure to topple Hamas ... and if Hamas fails to admit it faces a profound crisis and has failed to offer a convincing model for authority in Gaza ... then the initiative will remain a mutual tactical maneuver,” he said. Senior Abbas aide Yasser Abed Rabbo said Abbas's team was prepared to be flexible, notably in accepting foreign Arab intervention in Gaza. But analysts and diplomats are skeptical of an end to the rift. “In that case, the leaderships on both sides will pay the price,” said analyst Abdel-Majid Sweilem. “And in either case, there will be no Palestinian state.” - Reuters __
