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Bahrain growth forecast sluggish
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 25 - 12 - 2010

The number of passengers traveling through Bahrain International Airport is expected to reach nine million this year, a surge of 400,000 passengers over last year.
JEDDAH: Real GDP growth forecast for Bahrain remain largely unchanged from last quarter, with growth expected to remain sluggish in the short to medium term as the country makes a slow recovery from the recent downturn, Business Monitor International said in its report on Bahrain Real Estate Report Q1 2011.
Moreover, Bahrain reliance on the energy sector increases, exacerbating its vulnerability to changes in global oil prices, the report added. The outlook for oil prices remains highly uncertain, due to the world economy's patchy recovery from economic turmoil, it noted.
The report further said yields have been moving sideways in the industrial sub-sectors, and in the office sub-sectors away from Manama.
Elsewhere, they have risen, the report pointed out.
Capital values have fallen dramatically relative to rental rates, which have also been falling, but at a lower rate. The report said investors now view real estate as a moderately risky investment from which returns come more in the form of income rather than capital gains. A gradual fall in yields over the next four years was anticipated, the report added.
In the residential sector, demand for social and affordable housing in Bahrain has escalated and looks set to worsen, in the absence of adequate supply, the report further said.
The need for social housing has now reached approximately 53,000 households, and is growing by 3,000-4,000 units per annum. Yet, the report noted, developers focused on building luxury apartments leading up to the global downturn in 2008. With a large number of projects still under development, the oversupply of this stock will worsen.
Moreover, there is an oversupply of virtually all kinds of commercial real estate, which will continue to worsen due to continuing projects. Given the subdued outlook for the overall economy, the glut is likely to persist for some time, BMI report added.
Meanwhile, the number of passengers traveling through Bahrain International Airport is expected to reach nine million this year, a surge of 400,000 passengers over last year, airport officials said. The traffic growth rate at the airport stands at six percent to 7 percent and the number of weekly flights has reached 1,200, said Civil Aviation Affairs undersecretary Captain Abdulrahman Al Gaoud on the sidelines of a ceremony marking the launch of Bahrain Air's daily flights to Saudi city of Dammam - its 19th destination.
Bahrain Air Managing Director Ibrahim Al Hamer said the airline is set to launch its inaugural flight to Sharm Al Sheikh, Egypt in February.


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