WINNING a fourth presidential term in a vote marred by the harsh suppression of opposition protests may have been the easy part for Belarus's Alexander Lukashenko. Bulging external deficits threaten the economic basis of Lukashenko's 16-year-old grip on power, but he won a pre-election reprieve by patching up ties with former colonial master Moscow and winning a sweetheart deal on energy imports. That means the 56-year-old leader may be able to ride out European criticism of the conduct of Sunday's election, the harsh crackdown on street protests and the detention of rival candidates. Yet, even if Lukashenko reckons he can get by without the European Union opening its chequebook, he has no choice but to open up Belarus's Soviet-style command economy to sustain his rule. “It is going to be Lukashenko's toughest five years so far,” said Sergei Chaliy, an independent financial analyst in Minsk. “Something must be done because the economy can't go on like this much longer. The question is does he realize that and what is he willing to do?” Since the 2008 global crisis, Lukashenko has maneuvered between Russia, the European Union, China and Venezuela, often switching sides to win pledges of investment and financial aid. He recently persuaded Russia to scrap export duties on oil products, saving $4 billion next year. That would help plug a budget deficit forecast at 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Yet economists are wary. “Many of the agreements are still just declarations. Nothing has been signed,” said Kirill Koktysh, a political analyst at Moscow's State University of Foreign Affairs. “Let's see how all this is implemented. We're talking about Lukashenko after all.”
