AS she tries to please all of the coalition's factions, Chancellor Angela Merkel sometimes finds it hard to manage the message. Upstaging conservative critics in a debate about Muslim immigrants, she delivered a resounding line that multi-culturalism had “utterly failed” in Germany, earning her the unwanted applause of right-wing populists like the Dutch anti-Muslim politician Geert Wilders. In an attempt to make clear that she views integration positively – as opposed to the laissez-faire “Multi-Kulti” approach favored by the center-left – she made a surprise visit to the German soccer team's changing rooms after a win over Turkey and was pictured shaking hands with Mesut Ozil, a Muslim of Turkish descent. Merkel's shortcomings are even starker when she's compared with her charismatic defense minister. Guttenberg denies he is a rival to the chancellor, but there is no doubt his image as an antidote to Merkel's relentlessly rational and unemotional leadership has helped his rise and appeals to those German longing for change. Whether he's donning khakis to visit the troops in Afghanistan or cycling across Berlin to appear impromptu at the launch of a book critical of overseas military missions, the young Bavarian aristocrat is a breath of fresh air in the staid world of German politics, and his poll ratings reflect that. Midway through last year, he surpassed Merkel as the most popular politician in Germany. In an ARD-Deutschland Trend poll in November, Merkel now ranks seventh with 41 percent against Guttenberg's 75 percent. “The Fabulous Guttenbergs”, read the cover of Der Spiegel magazine recently. Stern magazine called Guttenberg Germany's “Chancellor in Reserve”. Merkel's new assertiveness carries risks. Both the nuclear strategy and Stuttgart 21 have boosted support for the Greens, who have drawn level with or perhaps even overtaken the SPD as the main opposition party. SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel depicts the assertive new Merkel as increasingly disconnected from the people, and no longer interested in analysis and consensus. For all her attempts to look more decisive, though, the chancellor insists that her new tactics do not mean she's changed her political vision. She has campaigned for years, for example, for an unpopular reform of the health system, which she believes is vital to helping overcome the threats of a shrinking population. Nobody will challenge Merkel at the CDU conference in Karlsruhe on Nov. 14-16. She will be reelected as party leader, though the vote will be examined closely for evidence of waning support. But even then, and even if the CDU fares badly in regional elections next year, Merkel is still likely to stay until 2013 and may even seek a third term. As one senior colleague puts it: “Frau Merkel has nerves of steel.”
