Kohut IT turns out that Iraq is not the pivotal campaign issue that it seemed to be less than a year ago. Indeed, the war is no longer the top concern among US voters. A lot has changed with respect to Iraq in a relatively short period of time period. Voters have come to feel better about the way the war is going, and with American casualties declining, there is more optimism about our efforts there. While most Americans still believe the war was a mistake, the percentages of people who think the war is going badly or believe that the United States is losing ground against the insurgents has decreased compared with a year ago. In short, while no less important, Iraq is a somewhat less pressing issue. At the same time concerns about the economy — and prices specifically — have soared. In almost all rankings of issues in national opinion polls, the economy is No. 1 and Iraq is No. 2. How the war will figure as an issue in the coming election is complicated by ambivalent and contradictory public opinions. One of the more interesting findings in Republican exit polls was that John McCain, despite his strong support for the war, was more likely to win the backing of voters who disapproved of the war, while G.O.P. supporters of the war voted for other candidates (most often Mitt Romney.) And surprisingly, a late April Pew survey found voters thinking that Mr. McCain could do a better job than Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in handling the war by a 50 percent to 38 percent margin in Mr. Obama's case and a 49 percent to 43 percent margin in Mrs. Clinton's case. A late May poll found a much closer division of opinion between McCain and Obama, 46 percent to 43 percent, but not one that favored the Illinois senator. It's noteworthy that these responses came from a public that largely thinks the war was a mistake (57 percent to 37 percent in the late April survey), a view that is a cornerstone of the Obama campaign. This suggests that the high regard for McCain on the issue is predicated on looking forward at how he might handle the war in the future than at his past record of support. No doubt, McCain's high standing over his most likely November candidate has a great deal to do with the higher level of confidence that voters have in him over Obama on national security. The April survey found voters picking McCain over Obama as better able to defend the country against future terrorist attacks, by a huge 63 percent to 26 percent margin. But the surveys also show that voters have some second thoughts when they focus on John McCain's specific ideas about Iraq. For example, it is doubtful that voters will embrace McCain's goal (as opposed to a deadline) of getting the majority of combat troops out of Iraq by 2013. Most Americans (56 percent) think troops should be withdrawn, compared with 41 percent who favor keeping them there until the situation stabilizes. But the matter is more complicated than this for both hawks and doves. Follow-up questions to those who favor withdrawal reveal that, relatively few think that American troops should be taken out immediately (16 percent); most favor gradual withdrawal (39 percent) over the next year or two. And follow-up questions to those who back keeping troops in Iraq until the country stabilizes also found a good number saying they favor a time table (14 percent). This leaves a relatively small segment of the public (26 percent) supporting an open-ended commitment to keeping American forces in Iraq. While personal confidence in John McCain is strong, these results suggest that the public is more in line with Barack Obama's stated goals. But there is a hitch: although voters want out of Iraq, they are also wary of what might happen if we leave too quickly. In the late April survey, 41 percent thought that withdrawing forces while the country remained unstable could result in a terrorist attack on the United States. But then again another question showed that 35 percent said that if troops remain in Iraq for many years, an attack on this country was more likely. These contradictions illustrate the ambivalence of public opinion. In many respects, as far as Iraq is concerned, there is no completely right answer: the public finds both candidates' positions acceptable to some extent and both solutions could lead to an attack. This presents a real challenge to the candidates as we head to into the summer and on to November. – New York Times __
