The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration has released its August estimate of net revenue that the EIA expects to OPEC countries to earn in 2010 and 2011. The numbers don't get back to 2008 levels, when prices topped $140/b, but that's the direction they're headed. In 2008, OPEC pulled in net revenue of $964.7 billion, a stupendous number. The price of crude collapsed in 2009, and OPEC saw its revenue fall by 41 percent, to $570.5 billion. For 2010, the EIA is estimating that OPEC revenue will rise to $752.4 billion, a jump of 32 percent. For 2011, EIA estimates OPEC revenue at $821.1 billion, a mere 9 percent rise over 2010. The EIA estimates are based on an OPEC average per barrel spot price of $77.52 as of August 13th. Higher priced WTI crude spot prices are expected to average $81/b by the end of 2010 and $84/b in 2011. EIA expects OPEC crude production to rise by 1 million b/d in 2010 and 1.2 million b/d in 2011. Surplus capacity is expected remain right around 5 million b/d, with about 4.5 million b/d attributed to Saudi Arabia. Global consumption of crude oil is expected to increase by 1.6 million b/d in 2010, with most of the growth coming from China, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil. EIA projects that global consumption in 2011 will rise another 1.5 million b/d. US consumption is expected to rise by 150,000 b/d in 2010 and by the same amount again in 2011. Demand for crude from developing nations will keep crude prices high for the next decade at least, and maybe longer if no major shift occurs in transportation fuel. Oil prices fell Monday on uncertainty about the growth of the global economy, abundant crude supplies and a stronger dollar. Benchmark crude for October delivery fell 72 cents to settle at $73.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price hit $74.88 earlier in the day as Tropical Storm Danielle strengthened in the Atlantic, but forecasters now say it shouldn't affect Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production. In London, Brent crude dropped 64 cents to settle at $73.62 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
