The World Trade Organization (WTO) raised on Friday its forecast for growth of global commerce to 10 percent this year, with its director general saying that even this might yet “turn out to be too low.” WTO chief Pascal Lamy said: “Our forecast for world trade this year is plus 10 percent in volume after the minus 12 (percent) we registered in ‘09.” Lamy was speaking to reporters, at the launch of the trade body's annual report on the sidelines of the Shanghai World Expo. In a separate speech at Shanghai's Institute of Foreign Trade, the WTO's director general said that after last year's dramatic slump, “trade growth is coming back fast, thanks in no small measure to the continuing dynamism of China and the others.” “Unless there are unanticipated negative economic impacts in the second half of 2010, this estimate (of 10 percent) may even turn out to be too low,” he added. The WTO's latest forecast marks a rise from the 9.5 percent issued in March. The secretariat had warned then that the figure could prove too optimistic as markets were at that point unsettled by Europe's sovereign debt crisis. In the trade body's annual trade report, the WTO focused on the issue of trade in natural resources. It called for greater global cooperation on such trade, warning that a failure to work together could spark new tensions. “I believe not only that there is room for mutually beneficial negotiating trade-offs that encompass natural resources trade, but also that a failure to address these issues could be a recipe for growing tension in international trade relations,” said Lamy in the report. The value of world trade in natural resources - including fisheries, fuels, forestry products and mining - reached $3.7 trillion in 2008, close to a quarter of world merchandise trade. Trade in such products had surged more than six fold between 1998 and 2008 mainly due to sharp rises in fuel prices, noted the WTO. But as natural resources are finite or requires time for natural replenishment, resource-rich countries typically restrict their export volumes through export taxes or quotas, said the WTO. Such measures help to improve conservation of resources and can help push countries to diversify their exports away from the natural resource sectors. However, the WTO warned that such trade barriers can be problematic. They can lead to retaliation or rising world prices. Rather, Lamy pushed for “well designed trade rules” to address environmental protection and management of natural resources. “We would greatly enhance our chances of positive action in this area if we were to come to a prompt closure of the Doha Round,” he said, referring to the long-stalled trade talks for a global free trade deal. Launched in 2001 in the Qatari capital, the talks have foundered as developed countries and developing ones fail to agree on lowering tariffs and subsidies. While not specifically targeting natural resources trade, the Doha package includes pertinent issues like fisheries subsidies. World trade in natural resources - fuels, forestry, mining and fisheries - amounted to $3.7 trillion in 2008, or nearly 24 percent of total trade in merchandise goods, the WTO said on Friday. The share of fuels in natural resource trade rose from 57 percent in 1998 to 77 percent in 2008. Fish and forestry products each represented 3 percent of world trade in 2008, while mining products were responsible for 18 percent. The top 15 exporters of natural resources were responsible for 52 percent of world resource shipments in 2008, while the top 15 importers received 71 percent of traded resources. Applied tariffs are (on average) 23 percent lower in natural resource sectors relative to merchandise trade. Average bound rates in natural resource sectors are 1.7 percent in developed countries and 30.4 percent in developing and least-developed countries. Export taxes cover 11 percent of natural resources trade compared to 5 percent of other merchandise trade. Export restrictions on natural resource products represent 35 percent of notified export restrictions. Several natural resource sectors appear prominently in the subsidy notifications. Available research suggests that global subsidies to fisheries are in the order of $25 and $29 billion annually. q Non-WTO member Russia was the biggest exporter of natural resources in 2008 with a share of 9.1 percent, valued at $341 billion. Saudi Arabia followed with a share of 7.6 percent valued at $282 billion and Canada with $178 billion. q The United States was the biggest importer, buying some 15.2 percent of natural resources traded in 2008 valued at $583 billion, followed by Japan with 9.1 percent valued at $350 billion and China a close third with 8.6 percent valued at $330 billion. q China's imports of natural resources grew 43 percent in 2008. India, the seventh biggest importer with $135 billion, saw the value of its imports rise 52.5 percent. q Russia was the biggest exporter of fuels and the United States is the biggest importer. Australia was the biggest exporter of mining products and China the biggest importer. q China's biggest suppliers of natural resources are Australia, Saudi Arabia, Angola, Russia and Brazil.
