The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast that global oil demand will grow in 2011 at about the same rate as this year, led by developing economies such as China and India. Worldwide crude oil consumption will increase by 1.05 million barrels a day, or 1.2 percent, next year to average 86.41 million barrels a day, the organization's Vienna-based secretariat said on Thursday in its first assessment for 2011. This year OPEC predicts demand will grow 950,000 barrels a day, or 1.1 percent driven by countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “The global economic recovery, which is expected to start during the second half of 2010, is projected to continue through the whole of 2011,” OPEC said in the Monthly Oil Market Report. “As in the current year, next year's oil demand growth will take place in the non-OECD, mainly China, India, the Middle East and Latin America.” Crude demand is recovering around the world from a two-year slump, the steepest since the 1980s, triggered by the financial crisis and ensuing recession. Oil prices rose on Thursday as OPEC said world demand growth was set to rise slightly next year but gains were capped by news of slower economic growth in China, traders said. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in August, climbed 35 cents to $77.39 a barrel. Brent North Sea crude for August gained 35 cents to $77.39 in midday London trade. OPEC, responsible for 40 percent of global oil output, is anticipating less demand growth next year than the adviser to consuming OECD nations, the International Energy Agency. Two days ago, the Paris-based IEA forecast that oil usage will advance 1.3 million barrels, or 1.6 percent, to 87.8 million a day in 2011. OPEC predicted that producers outside the group will expand their supplies in 2011 by less than this year's shipments. Non-OPEC suppliers will increase output by 300,000 barrels a day to 52.2 million a day, the organization said. That's down from forecast growth for this year of 700,000 barrels a day. As a result, the world's need for crude from OPEC will increase. OPEC expects it will need to pump an average of 28.8 million barrels a day in 2011 to balance supply and demand, or 200,000 a day more than this year. OPEC's 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. While the IEA also forecast stable demand growth both this year and next year, it put oil demand this year at an average 86.5 million bpd and 87.8 million bpd next year. OPEC's forecasts are slightly lower at 85.4 million bpd and 86.4 million bpd respectively. In 2010, “the current economic situation in most developed countries remains sluggish. The economic recovery is not only slow, but also facing considerable uncertainty,” the organization said. Nevertheless, the global economic recovery was expected to start during the second half of 2010 and would “continue through the whole of 2011 with more or less even distribution among the four quarters,” it wrote. As in 2010. oil demand growth next year would take place in non-OECD countries, notably China, India, the Middle East and Latin America. The United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, would remain the key to recovery, OPEC said. “Any further delay in (the US) economic recovery will of course lead to a downward revision in the world oil demand in total,” it said. And it added: “Other factors that might play an important role in next year's oil demand are retail oil product prices, taxes and removal of retail price subsidies worldwide.” The organization's next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 14 in Vienna.
