Consumer confidence dropped in Saudi Arabia, the latest Middle East Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey conducted by the Middle East's job site Bayt.com revealed. The survey, prepared in conjunction with research specialists YouGov Siraj, found that Saudi Arabia's index recorded a decline of 3.2 index points compared to the last quarter. The highest decline was recorded by Egypt which saw a drop of 5.5 points, while Lebanon recorded the largest increase of 7.6 index points, following a large drop of 12.1 index points in the last wave. In the Gulf region, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE all dropped in consumer confidence this quarter moving down the index by 4, 1.7and 0.5 index points respectively. Qatar, however, saw an increase of 1.7 points. In North Africa, while Egypt recorded the largest drop, consumer confidence in Morocco improved by 3.9 index points. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a measure of consumer expectations and satisfaction of various elements of the economy including inflation, job opportunities and the cost of living. Respondents were asked questions about their personal financial circumstances and how they compare to the same period last year. Overall, 35 percent of the region's respondents said their financial position is the same as last year and just over a quarter, 27 percent, said it has improved. In the Kingdom, 30 percent said they are better off than last year, 36 percent said they are in the same position as last year and 28 percent said they `re in a worse position than last year. Among the countries surveyed, 37 percent of respondents in Qatar said they are doing better than last year, compared to 20 percent in the UAE and 25 percent in both Bahrain and Kuwait. However in Jordan, 41 percent of respondents actually felt that their financial position is worse than last year. “The figures are interesting because there is little correlation between the countries of particular areas of the Middle East, demonstrating clearly how each country's economy is increasingly independent. There are also some key changes in the figures since the last wave which perhaps signals traces of the instability that was felt across the Middle East region duringthe recession,” said Rabea Ataya, chief executive officer, Bayt.com. In addition to financial position, consumer confidence is assessed by asking the respondents about their level of optimism toward the future, which forms the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI). The countries varied widely in terms of their consumer expectations. The largest increase is seen in Lebanon, with an increase of 10.3 points since the last quarter. This was a substantial reversal from the 14.2 index point decrease the country showed in the last quarter. Saudi Arabia showed a drop of 3 index points since the last quarter, with Bahrain reporting the biggest decrease, moving down the index by 8.1 points. On the whole, respondents are expecting to be in a better financial position next year. Overall, 49 percent of respondents believe that their personal financial position will be better next year. Most optimistic that their personal financial position will be better in a year's time are respondents in Qatar and in Saudi Arabia with 51 percent and 50 percent confirming this statement. Respondents also remain largely optimistic that their country's economy will be better in a year's time. Overall, 38 percent say that their country's economy will be better, 20 percent say it will remain the same, and 23 percent say it will become worse. Respondents in Oman are the most positive about the expected improvements in their country's economy, with 51 percent stating things will be better. Respondents in Egypt are most pessimistic about their country's economy a year from now: 34 percent say that it will become worse. In the Kingdom, 38 percent expect things to be better in a year's time. Respondents were also asked what they feel their propensity to consume is, as part of the Propensity to Consume Index (PCI). Saudi Arabia moved down this index by 3.6 points compared to the previous quarter while Morocco and Lebanon have moved up the index by 16.2 and 7.9 points respectively. At the other end of the scale, Egypt recorded the largest drop, moving down the index by 8.3 points. Asked whether they would invest in property, the respondents largely agree that they will not. The trend continues from the previous quarter with a majority of respondents (63 percent) stating they are not interested in making any investment in property. Within the Kingdom, 58 percent say they will not be buying any property. Of those wishing to purchase a property, 61 percent say they are likely to opt for a new property. “People's expectations of the economy never quite match up to how they expect their own financial situation to change - it's one of our greatest strengths that we tend to believe that we will outperform” said Sundip Chahal, chief operating officer of YouGov Siraj. Another contributor to the CCI is the Employee Confidence Index (ECI), which measures the attitudes of respondents to the local job market, in terms of their satisfaction towards the availability of jobs and their satisfaction with their salary. Kingdom dropped 5.5 index points versus the previous quarter on this measure, with nearly countries registering falls. However, Qatar and Lebanon moved up by 2.3 and 0.3 index points respectively. Showing the biggest decrease is Syria, which moved down the index by 19.4 points, followed by Egypt which moved down the index by 7.8 points. In the rest of the Gulf, Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain all moved down the index by 7.4, 4.2 and 0.5 points respectively. When asked whether they believe more jobs will be available in a year's time, respondents are roughly divided: 29 percent say more will be available, 27 percent say the job situation will remain the same and 30 percent say the availability of jobs will be worse. In Saudi Arabia, 32 percent believe the availability of jobs will get better while 28 percent of respondents believe the availability of jobs will become worse. In terms of salaries and whether they have kept pace with the cost of living, as in the previous wave, the majority feel that they have not kept pace with the cost of living, with 64 percent agreeing that there is a disparity, while just 19 percent agree they have increased in line with the cost of living, and 5 percent say they have increased more than the cost of living.
