China is the new USA and, unlike India, has a nearly 20-century-old history of clout to pursue an aggressive and independent foreign policy line, especially when it comes to dipping into the natural resources in the neighborhood. In fact, an ongoing Sino-Indian “energy war” in the corporate boardrooms is what's probably souring Sino-Indian relations more than China's unstinting military support for Pakistan. China's economy is projected to reach $123 trillion within 30 years, more than three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. Only for two of the past 20 centuries has China not been the world's top economy. Its appetite for sustainability is, hence, arguably unparalleled. Earlier this week, much to India's dismay and ahead of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) meeting in Christchurch, New Zealand, China announced that it plans to sell two nuclear power-generating reactors to Pakistan. The proposed sale appears to break NSG guidelines and is similar to the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal which was clinched under a special NSG exemption pushed through by the US. China's plan is also a slap in the face of India that was beginning to brighten up at the thought of being dehyphenated from Pakistan as being among nuclear weapons powers that have not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Why is China, at this point, aggressively reinforcing its historic hold on Pakistan that has a sordid history of selling nuclear weapons technology and that is arguably at its nadir today, ranked 10th this week in the 2010 Failed State Index released by the presigious Foreign Policy magazine? Fact is, Pakistan is the fulcrum of China's regional reach for new sources of energy and minerals to sustain its high growth rate. Its announcement of the proposed sale comes only days after the New York Times suspiciously revealed the discovery by the United States of nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan. The report cited an internal Pentagon memo as stating that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material for use in the manufacture of hydrogen fuel cells and batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys. It's quite unlikely that the US has only just discovered Afghanistan's massive potential mineral wealth, what with the jury still out on whether a trans-Afghanistan oil pipeline to the Arabian Sea was the reason for the 2002 US invasion and the toppling of the Taleban regime. Political analysts suspect that the minerals report was leaked to the NYT by the Obama admistration in a bid to pave the way for its next move in Afghanistan. If that's the case, then China had no choice but to overtly checkmate the move by playing the Pakistan wild card and getting to the nucleus of the issue: access to the regional riches. Afghanistan is critical to the regional plans of the US, China, Iran, India and Pakistan, not necessarily in that order though the US has been having its way in the war-torn country for quite a while now. Of late, Washington got Kabul to agree to build a $7.6-billion natural gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to energy-starved Pakistan and India. The Asian Development Bank is considering financing the project. Reports say the Obama admistration is pushing the project so as to counter a proposed Iranian pipeline for gas supply to Pakistan and India. China's influence in the region has weakened after the 2002 invasion, and especially after the US troop surge in Afghanistan last year and subsequent air control of Pakistan's troubled northwest tribal region. Nonetheless, China has invested heavily in building Pakistan's Gwadar port that will be the regional hub for trans-shipping Central Asian oil. But if the US gets a stronger foothold by leading the way in exploiting Afghanistan's mineral wealth, China might not be assured of its Gwadar spinoff. Besides, China has an eye on Afghanistan's mineral wealth as well. It plans to invest $3 billion in the Aynak copper mine, south of Kabul, and millions more to build a railway route from Gwadar north through Afghanistan and Tajikistan. A brand new highway through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan already links China's western Xinjiang province to Afghanistan. Additionally, Wardak province has also been connected to the Chinese road map. As for the US, it has spent $1.8 billion on Afghan road projects since 2002. Iran, meanwhile, has invested up to $220 million, and millions more have come from India. In effect, the battle lines are already drawn into Afghanistan's fledging road network that could become the future “Silk Route.” One study, titled “The Key to Success in Afghanistan: A Modern Silk Road Strategy”, prepared by the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, describes post-conflict Afghanistan as a transit route for energy-rich Central Asia. As things stand, however, it's all still a very ambitious dream for Afghanistan where the Taleban are becoming more and more relevant for the shaping of the country's future. For India, control of the region by the US is a better prospect than staunchly pro-PakistanChina. For Pakistan, Afghanistan is indispensable as a backyard offering strategic depth, with or without US support. For the US, Afghanistan may well be already in the bag but for that niggling problem of getting the Taleban on board. Iran shudders at the thought of a US stronghold in its eastern neigborhood. And for China, as the new USA, there seems no reason why the old USA, now debt-ridden, financially defanged and war weary, must have its way in the region anymore.
