Most Gulf Arab states will run comfortable budget surpluses this year, and continue to increase spending, as higher oil prices help cement recovery in the region, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. Oil rose toward $83 a barrel in volatile trade on Wednesday, as a drop in gasoline stocks in the United States and moves towards a larger plan to help severely indebted Greece overshadowed mounting crude stocks. Stocks of crude oil in the United States rose by 1.9 million barrels last week, the USEnergy Information Administration (EIA) said, topping analysts' expectations. “We've seen crude builds in 12 out of the last 13 weeks, and crude is still over $80 (a barrel),” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics in Austin, Texas. “Fundamentally, it's a bearish (EIA) report, but inventories aren't the main factor driving markets right now.” Distillate stocks also rose, posting a gain of 2.9 million barrels, though gasoline stocks declined by 1.2 million barrels. US crude for June delivery fell to a low of $81.29, before paring losses to trade up 39 cents at $82.83 by 1509 GMT. Prices are down by more than $2 so far this week. London Brent for June delivery was down 20 cents at $85.58 a barrel. Kuwait is seen booking the largest fiscal surplus in the region, of 19.4 percent of gross domestic product this year, according to the median forecast of economists polled between April 20-27, although that is down from 23.4 percent in the previous poll in January. The global credit crunch forced the largest Arab economies - Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - to drain reserves amassed during the boom years as they launched massive spending packages to support growth. With oil prices more than doubling from end-2008 lows of around $32 a barrel, most Gulf states are seen booking budget and current account surpluses this year. In contrast, policymakers in the world's major economies are faced with growing fiscal gaps, while Greece's fiscal woes have rattled the euro zone. “In terms of available cash and revenues their fiscal performance this year should improve compared to last year, so they have the means to spend to boost growth,” said Reham ElDesoki, senior economist at Beltone Financial in Cairo. After Kuwait, cash-rich Qatar will post the healthiest surplus in the region of 10.0 percent of GDP, followed by the UAE with a 9.0 percent surplus despite cash-strapped Dubai's debt woes. The latest poll is based on forecasts of 17 analysts. Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, is seen generating a surplus of 4.8 percent of GDP as oil prices have surged since the government in its budget forecast a SR70 billion ($18.67 billion) deficit for this year.
