Dissident republican unrest is likely to rumble on in Northern Ireland as economic downturn and political disaffection drive a new generation of activists left outside a peace process that enters its latest stage next week. From Monday, the province is expected to get its first justice minister, cementing the highly sensitive transfer of police and justice powers from London to Belfast. Signed in early February after nearly two weeks of intense negotiations, the Hillsborough Castle Agreement on devolving the powers averted the collapse of Belfast's fragile governing coalition. It did nothing, however, to win over republican dissidents who have stepped up activity over the past year and have carried out some fatal attacks. Few believe the peace process launched with the 1998 Good Friday Agreement is in serious danger, but security forces describe the risk of attack as “severe,” with police the prime target. Daily life in Northern Ireland is regularly disrupted by hoax and, occasionally, genuine bomb alerts. “If anything the problem's going to get worse. The economic situation will encourage people from republican backgrounds to get involved,” said John Mooney, an author who has written extensively on republican dissidents. Recession has affected Northern Ireland particularly harshly, with the construction and manufacturing sectors worst hit. Comparisons with the rest of the United Kingdom are complicated by levels of economic inactivity that are a legacy of the “Troubles”, but Ulster Bank economists noted a 2.9 percent annual decrease in the number of jobs in the final quarter of 2009 compared with a 1.2 percent fall in employment growth for Britain as a whole. “They (dissidents) don't think the strategy pursued by Sinn Fein is getting them anywhere. There's a genuine feeling, certainly within disenchanted young people, that getting involved in the IRA (Irish Republican Army) is not such a bad thing,” Mooney added. Sinn Fein, once the political wing of the IRA, has renounced violence as a means to further its campaign for a united Ireland, and shares power in the Northern Ireland Assembly with its former foe, the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party. Analysts said Sinn Fein inadvertently helped to kindle a new wave of dissident activity when in 2007 it gave its support for the first time to police in Northern Ireland. Throughout the three decades of sectarian violence that killed 3,600 people, republican paramilitaries, drawn mostly from the Catholic community, viewed the police as the embodiment of their Protestant unionist enemies and British rule. Since the disarmament of the Provisional IRA, splinter groups, the Real IRA and Continuity IRA, have emerged. Mooney also referred to Oglaigh na hEireann – loosely translated as “soldiers of Ireland” – as a rising force. “It's quietly getting on with the business of terrorism,” he said of the faction. University academics who monitor closely the Northern Ireland question also saw a persistent threat. “The lessons of history are that it (dissident violence) probably never quite goes away. It ebbs and flows,” said Jon Tonge, politics professor at the University of Liverpool in England. He thought there was a possibility IRA splinter groups might try to use the British election, to take place on May 6, to draw attention to their cause, although he added “their intent greatly exceeds their capacity”. John Bew of King's College London also perceived a risk. “I would not rule it out. They have some very capable, violent people. They will try and destabilise with the general election coming up,” he said. Even if it is not an instant cure, devolution is still considered a vital next step. The job of justice minister is expected to go to David Ford, leader of the non-sectarian Alliance Party, in the first instance, and analysts anticipate it could go to a Sinn Fein candidate after next year's Northern Ireland Assembly elections. British intelligence services will continue to play a huge role behind the scenes in seeking to prevent attacks, but the justice minister will be responsible for prisons, jail terms and funding of the Police Service of Northern Ireland. Police and others have voiced hopes greater local responsibility will increase local support for the security forces. “A lot of people on both sides of the community wanted a justice minister,” said Brian Feeney, a Belfast-based writer and historian. “But the dissidents are not susceptible to political developments. Gradually, they will be sent to jail or give up,” he said, but added that could take a very long time.
