Sri Lankan voters will elect a parliament on April 8 for the first time since the government defeated Tamil Tiger separatists' three-decade insurgency last year and ended one of Asia's longest-running civil wars. President Mahinda Rajapaksa's ruling alliance has its eyes on winning a two-thirds majority in the 225-seat legislature, giving it the votes to amend the constitution to his liking. A whopping 7,620 candidates representing 36 parties and 301 independent groups are vying for seats. Of that group, 196 will be elected directly to parliament, with the remaining seats filled by parties based on their total vote percentages. Parliament can be an effective check on the presidency but Rajapaksa's United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) is expected to retain its majority. Election monitors from the Commonwealth are expected. The European Union has not yet said if it will send monitors. As at every election, all parties offer jobs, increases in government handouts and rural and agricultural development plans. They differ little in substance. It's hard to say whether Rajapaksa will get his two-thirds majority. There is no reliable polling data. Only once has any political party got more than 50 percent of the parliamentary vote since Sri Lanka adopted a proportional system of representation in 1978. Rajapaksa got 57.8 percent of the votes against challenger General Sarath Fonseka's 40.2 percent in the Jan. 26 presidential election. While that's no guarantee the UPFA will do the same at this poll, it is worth noting that his alliance is still strong. A diverse group of parties had backed Fonseka to try to capture the anti-Rajapaksa vote, and their cohesion has evaporated since the general was arrested Feb. 8 on charges of politicking while in uniform. The two big parties behind him, the main opposition United National Party (UNP) and the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), share only one thing now: a pledge to free Fonseka if they win a parliamentary majority. That is seen as unlikely against Rajapaksa's dominance. The main Tamil coalition, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), also backed Fonseka but it struggled to get its voters out. The Tamil Tigers used to dictate who was elected in areas they controlled, so the TNA this time around is going to face competition from other Tamil parties and will likely lose some of its 22 seats. Overall, analysts expect Tamil parties to get around 20 seats, roughly proportional to the size of their minority population. The Colombo Stock Exchange has a habit of cooling off a bit before polls as local investors wait to see what happens and then buy in afterwards. But the market has generally shrugged off political noise given that even at its loudest, it is a huge improvement on the uncertainty and volatility the war brought. The market is up 5.1 percent since the Jan. 26 polls - part of a surge that has seen it gain 154 percent since the end of 2008, when it turned from a multi-year low on optimism the government would defeat the Tamil Tigers. After the victory in May, foreign investors began buying stocks and were net buyers in 2009, but this year, they have sold a net of 13.2 billion rupees ($115.7 million) worth of shares, suggesting they have cashed in on the surge. Market players say Sri Lankan treasury securities, particularly those of 18 months' maturity or shorter, remain in demand from foreign investors. The benchmark 91-day t-bill at auction on Tuesday had a yield of 8.52 percent. With the elections out of the way, traders say they expect demand to rise. Most of the violence has been intra-party as rivals vie for better position. One notable exception was a rock-throwing protest at the offices of the nation's largest private broadcaster, ostensibly over sponsorship of a concert by R&B singer Akon, who appeared in a video which offended Buddhists. However, local media have reported the involvement of a number of ruling party politicians, suggesting some payback against the broadcaster, seen as pro
