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Political crisis highlights vicious circle in Pakistan
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 02 - 04 - 2010

Pakistan is asking Swiss authorities to reopen corruption cases against President Asif Ali Zardari, a lawyer for the government's top anti-corruption agency told the Supreme Court this week.
The move came a day after the detention of a senior figure in the top police investigation agency, the first official to face legal action over revived corruption charges after a controversial amnesty was thrown out by the Supreme Court.
The 2007 amnesty, known as the National Reconciliation Ordinance, was widely seen as the basis for a power-sharing deal between former military president Pervez Musharraf and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, assassinated in December 2007 after returning from self-imposed exile.
The Supreme Court in December last year threw out the amnesty deal on the grounds it was unconstitutional. The amnesty had protected several thousand people - including Zardari - from old corruption charges and allowed their return to politics.
The government says Bhutto's widower, Zardari, who faces corruption cases filed in the 1990s which he says were politically motivated, is protected by presidential immunity.
The decision to ask the Swiss authorities to reopen cases against Zardari - which came at the Supreme Court's direction - may mean the Court is seeking to challenge that immunity.
Both Zardari and Bhutto were convicted by a Geneva court in 2003 of laundering $13 million linked to kickbacks. But that verdict was overturned on appeal.
Zardari is also vulnerable to legal challenges to his 2008 election as president on the grounds other corruption charges in addition to the Swiss cases against him made him ineligible to stand for office.
Under severe pressure, Zardari has agreed to hand over his key powers to the prime minister. He may also be calculating that his Pakistan People's Party will remain a dominant political force, a highly likely scenario.
The judiciary appears determined to press on with the potentially explosive cases. So Pakistan might face a new destabilizing showdown between the judiciary and the executive, who have a history of hostile relations.
Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, seen as a tough champion of the rule of law and transparency, is a reminder that the government can't afford to push the judiciary too hard. After he reviewed legal cases challenging the legality of Musharraf's government in 2007, he was removed by the president on charges of misconduct. The move trigged large protests and violent clashes. He was reinstated by Zardari after Musharraf left office, but not immediately and only after considerable pressure on the new president.
At stake are a lot of things. Money, for one. A consequence of the uncertainty is the likelihood foreign investors, already spooked by a Taliban militant insurgency, will stay away.
It will also concern the United States, a vital source of aid and a long-time ally Pakistan can't do without. Washington believes a stable Pakistan is its best bet in helping establish stability in Afghanistan so US troops can start withdrawing in 2011 and not risk a return to chaos in the country.
Aside from being encouraged to crack down on Afghan militants operating from its side of the border to attack US troops, Pakistan faces a range of explosive domestic issues. The economy is sluggish. Power cuts are making the government more unpopular.
Zardari was already deeply unpopular even before the amnesty issue arose, so this won't help. And it might not help Pakistan's troubled path toward democratic rule.
Ultimately, the military continues to call many of the shots. Seen as a state within a state, along with its ISI intelligence agency, the army makes security decisions and even shapes foreign policy.
In the end, the nuclear-armed country could get caught in the same vicious circle that has often earned it the reputation of being ungovernable.
A civilian government, usually seen as corrupt, devours itself by infighting and fending off opponents. A political crisis erupts and the military steps in, often with public support, despite hurting Pakistan's democratic credentials. It's a pattern that could have bigger consequences this time around, with the country squeezed from all sides.


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