Unlike the last round of elections in Afghanistan where it was found that the party of Hamid Karzai had committed widespread fraud to ensure that Karzai remains in charge of the government, international observers of Iraq's recent election have suggested no such fraud took place in last week's elections in Iraq. Nevertheless, any parliamentary election in a state as fractured as Iraq that favors one party by just two seats should undergo a recount if the second place finisher so requests. That will, no doubt, happen but the party of incumbent prime minister, Nuri Kamal Al-Maliki, should impress on its supporters that peace should reign during the recount and the final results be accepted. The apparent victory of Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite who garnered widespread support from the country's minority Sunnis, means that he will have first chance to form a coalition government. Since he did not come close to securing the 163-seat majority that he would need to form a government without multi-party support, he must appeal to other parties to join his government. Most observers, at this point, do not believe that Allawi will be able to form such a government, leaving Al-Maliki in a position to join forces with the Iraqi National Alliance, led by firebrand Shiite cleric, Moqtada Al-Sadr, to form a government and remain prime minister. Al-Maliki, however, lost the support of many Iraqis because of his apparent inability to provide security, government services and jobs, and an alliance with Al-Sadr could alienate the large number of Sunnis who voted for Allawi, laying the groundwork for a continuation of the violence that led up to the elections. Al-Sadr is likely to end up the kingmaker, no matter who turns to him for support, as the Iraqi National Alliance won 70 seats, enough to give a coalition government led by either Allawi or Al-Maliki a majority of seats. The cleric has shown an impressive discipline and restraint after his forces first appeared to be the most belligerent in Baghdad and despite his rhetoric, he has hewed the democratic line. So, no matter who he chooses to support, we can only hope that he will do so responsibly and peacefully. Until any new government is declared, however, Iraq will be in a state of transition with violence liable to break out at any time. __
