The United States, Britain, France and Germany are eager to start talks with China and Russia on a US-drafted proposal for a new round of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. But Russia refuses to negotiate on new sanctions without China, UN diplomats say. They add that Russian officials have made clear they dislike the draft resolution Washington circulated to Moscow and Beijing weeks ago. China has yet to react. Iran rejects Western charges that it is secretly developing atomic weapons and says the goal of its nuclear program is generation of electricity and other peaceful activities. Who are the key players? The United States, Britain, France and Germany exchanged ideas for weeks on a fourth round of Iran sanctions before they agreed on the draft resolution prepared by Washington. Russia and China have lucrative business ties with Tehran, which Western diplomats say is one of the main reasons that Moscow and Beijing have been reluctant to support any punitive UN measures against Tehran. Except for Germany, which is not on the Security Council, all those in the group have veto power on the council and can block any resolution. Western officials involved in the six-power negotiations say Moscow has been losing patience with Tehran and will likely support new sanctions, though it opposes measures that it deems too tough, such as sanctions on Iran's energy sector. Western diplomats say they are prepared to work hard to win Beijing over, even if it means diluting proposed measures. Where are sanctions discussions at now? Iran sanctions discussions have stalled. The United States, Britain, France and Germany would like to begin negotiations with Russia and China to discuss the proposal but Beijing is resisting. Russia refuses to begin negotiations on a text unless China takes part. The four Western powers hope China will agree to discussions soon so they can get a revised draft resolution to the full 15-nation Security Council. The negotiating process would take at least several weeks. Russia and China could be expected to work hard to water down any proposed measures as they did with the three previous sanctions resolutions passed in 2006, 2007 and 2008, which Beijing and Moscow ultimately supported. So far the issue is being handled by the six countries' capitals. If the six manage to agree on the wording of a draft resolution, negotiations will be taken over by UN missions in New York and the full Security Council will join in. What new sanctions are being proposed? The latest proposal includes the following measures: u It would place restrictions on new Iranian banks established abroad, a measure that some diplomats say would amount to a ban; u It would urge vigilance regarding transactions linked to Iran's central bank, but would not officially blacklist it as the Western powers had originally wanted; u It would restrict insurance and reinsurance firms from insuring cargo shipments to and from Iran; u There would be additional Iranian individuals and companies facing travel bans and asset freezes, with a new focus on members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and companies controlled by it; u Some shipping companies would be blacklisted, including the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines; u Limits on arms trade with Iran would be expanded into a full arms embargo with an inspection regime similar to one in place for the North Korea sanctions; u It does not include sanctions targeting Iran's oil and gas sectors as the French had originally pushed for. How will China and others vote? China has given no clear signals on how it would vote on a new sanctions resolution, though it has repeatedly called for further dialogue with Tehran and said it does not believe it is the time for more sanctions. However, Western diplomats predict that China would not veto new steps against Iran if Russia supported them. While Iran is an important energy supplier for China, Beijing's ties with the United States are extremely important, they say. Western diplomats predict that they could get at least 10 or 11 yes votes, including Russia. There are varying predictions on how China would vote, with some diplomats expecting a yes and others an abstention. Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon have made clear they would have difficulty supporting new sanctions against Tehran. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran, is an important faction in Lebanon's government. But if China voted for a resolution, Western diplomats predict Brazil and Turkey could be persuaded to vote in favor of it as well. Diplomats say Lebanon will likely abstain. What's the timetable for new sanctions? Western diplomats had hoped to get an agreement on elements for a new sanctions resolution among the six powers this month and a resolution approved by the Security Council next month. However, they now say that it might not come until June, if at all. If they fail to get a UN sanctions resolution, the United States, European Union and their allies might begin working on their own unilateral sanctions against Iran.
