EVEN if Morgan Tsvangirai succeeds in unseating Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe, the opposition leader's approach to a post-election crisis has rekindled doubts over how he would handle the top job. The stocky former union boss has vowed to end President Robert Mugabe's rule of nearly three decades with a “final knock-out” in an election run-off, to take over a once prosperous country whose economy now lies in ruins. But questions have been raised over how well Tsvangirai could handle the task of reviving Zimbabwe. The weeks of stalemate since March 29 presidential and parliamentary elections have exposed apparent uncertainty and opaqueness in strategy and policy. Fearing assassination, Tsvangirai has been away from Zimbabwe for over a month on a mission to secure regional diplomatic support while his supporters at home face what human rights groups say is a campaign of violence and intimidation. “Obviously there is a case for questioning his sense of judgment on this, that he needed to find a balance between his diplomatic offensive and staying at home to give leadership to his followers,” said Professor Eldred Masunungure, a political commentator at the University Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai, 56, says he won the first vote outright, but the electoral authority said he failed to win the majority needed to avoid a run-off. A date has not been fixed for a second round. While Tsvangirai's star has risen following his historic first round defeat of Mugabe, and he has a better chance than anyone has had of toppling the 84-year-old former guerrilla, critics say Tsvangirai has proven indecisive at key moments. First, his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said it had no plans to contest a run-off. Then it said Tsvangirai would stand to avoid handing an automatic victory to Mugabe. Now uncertainty has emerged over when Tsvangirai will return to Zimbabwe. On Saturday, he had said he would go back within two days, but he still hasn't. His earlier call for a run-off by May 24, as specified by law, was quietly dropped. Questions were also raised over the opposition's handling of post-election court cases, which were aimed at forcing the release of results but if anything helped prolong a delay. The MDC says its leader's decisions will prove to have been the best in the long run. “Everything that our president has had to do has been carefully considered and is eventually for the good of Zimbabwe,” said party spokesman Nelson Chamisa. In his favor, Tsvangirai will get plenty of political mileage simply by being the only alternative to Mugabe. Tsvangirai won around 48 percent in the first round to 43 for Mugabe and he would be clear favorite to win the run-off if it is fair - something the opposition strongly doubts. If Tsvangirai wins, the United States and Britain stand ready to pump billions of dollars into Zimbabwe. Foreign investors also see huge opportunities once Mugabe goes. “There is a plenty of international goodwill for him and Zimbabwe so he should have no problems in mobilizing financial assistance, but obviously Mr. Tsvangirai will have to demonstrate that he has the ability and consistency to enjoy this confidence,” said one senior Western diplomat. Tsvangirai, the self-taught son of a bricklayer, has won international respect for standing up to Mugabe. But healing the country may prove far more difficult. Any crackdown on the veteran leader's powerful security chiefs, who have threatened to keep Tsvangirai from power, could pose risks. He may need their help to rebuild the country and ease political divisions. Tsvangirai has sent mixed signals on how he would deal with a defeated Mugabe. He has called for a government of national “healing” while stressing Mugabe would have no place in it. “The MDC has been saying different things to different people, but they have to take a firm position and address the subject more firmly,” said one political observer in Harare. Land could be another critical issue. Mugabe's critics say evictions of white farmers in favor of landless blacks helped wreck the economy. Tsvangirai could not just turn the tables, but would need to come up with a clear policy on restoring farm exports that bring in vital foreign currency. Formed in 1999, the MDC braved violence by ruling ZANU-PF supporters in contesting parliamentary elections in 2000 and 2005 and a presidential poll in 2002, which it said were rigged. But Tsvangirai's position as the main opposition leader was shaken in 2005 by fierce infighting in the MDC which split over strategy and accusations that he was behaving like a dictator. Supporters say Tsvangirai has emerged stronger and that he ran a powerful election campaign for the March polls despite infiltration by ZANU-PF agents, harassment and a raft of strict laws which have previously combined to undermine the MDC. John Makumbe, a veteran political commentator and Mugabe critic, said Tsvangirai had made some tactical errors but could be given a boost if he wins by the return of millions of Zimbabweans who have fled the economic meltdown. “If there are people suggesting that he will not be up to the job of managing the economy or the country's politics, then those people are underestimating the amount of goodwill out there,” said Makumbe. “Tsvangirai will be spoilt for choice in all fields with skilled people who have run away from Mugabe.” – Reuters __
