Turkey's crackdown on military officers accused of conspiring to topple the government brings the country to a historic juncture and raises the prospect of deep social division. The inroad into military power reached a new level at the weekend when two senior retired generals, both highly revered in the high command, were charged with plotting a coup. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan calls the dozens of arrests and indictments a painful, necessary process promoting democracy in the European Union membership candidate. The army, traditionally guardian of secularism in the face of a flawed and corrupt political culture, can no longer exist beyond judicial and government control, officials argue. Trials now loom for more than 30 officers charged last week over analleged 2003 plot to create chaos, undermine the government and trigger a military intervention. “We are really going through a historic period,” said Cengiz Aktar, a leading Turkish columnist and author. “The authority of the army has never before been challenged in this way in this country. The Armed Forces were non-accountable for what they said, what they did. For the first time they are being held to account.” Concerns have risen however that Turkey's secularist establishment, the higher judiciary and armed forces, will not countenance any further loss of power to a new political class of conservative Muslims, epitomised by Erdogan's AK party. Most Turks today believe the generals would not dare directly challenge the AK party, which has a huge parliamentary majority, and destroy newfound confidence in democracy. But there are also those deeply suspicious of the AK Party, fearing it has an Islamist agenda to push through if the army is weakened. The post-modern coup The Chief of General Staff General Ilker Basbug has called coups a thing of the past but has also warned that “military patience has its limits”. In 1997 the generals spearheaded a campaign of political pressure that forced Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, a mentor of Erdogan, to step down – an operation dubbed the “post-modern coup”, distinguishing it from armed overthrows of the past. In 2007, the army intervened in presidential elections with a statement on its website criticizing the government, the “e-coup”; but the AK leadership gave notice then of a tougher line on the military by responding with its own rebuttal. The judiciary, or elements of it, has formed a second focus of resistance to AK, elected in 2002 with a landslide majority furnished by the collapse of established secular parties tainted by accusations of corruption and misrule. There is speculation of a new bid by prosecutors to ban the party, which narrowly survived a 2008 case to close it for anti-secular activities. Turkey's army, in no small measure, mirrors the country. National service is compulsory, army bases are highly visible in the centre of cities, not least Ankara and Istanbul, and nearly all Turkish men will at some point don a uniform. Any traumatic change in the role and status of the military arguably has ramifications for the entire social structure. “There has been an ongoing struggle between both sides which has been in the open since 2007 although it was going on behind the scenes before then,” said Hugh Pope of the International Crisis Group think-tank. “The current wave of detentions has taken in some of the most highly-educated officers.. and some who until recently had very high-profile jobs.” The two charged on Friday night were retired First Army chief general Cetin Dogan, associated with the 1997 “post-modern coup”, and lieutenant-general Engin Alan, former special forces commander involved in the 1999 operation to capture Kurdish rebel Abdullah Ocalan in Kenya and bring him back to Turkey. Lines of communication The bolder the authorities' actions in detaining high-level suspects, including a related investigation into an alleged ultra-nationalist group accused of plotting a coup, the louder the cries by opponents that the probe is politically motivated. Certainly, some of the arrests have been heavy handed and colorful detail of the allegations has been in no short supply. Analysts see questions in the public mind, also reflected in some newspapers, about the grounding of the accusations. More than 200 people including military officers, lawyers and politicians have been arrested in the investigation of the “Ergenekon” group, accused of conspiring to sow chaos and panic so that citizens would cry out to the army to restore order. “The government has a responsibility to step in and reduce the polarization. Families are being split by it, every social group is now turning into a pro- and anti- camp,” said Pope. Last Thursday the prime minister, president and armed forces chief met to try to defuse the crisis, but a day later a second wave of detentions followed. Erdogan, who denies any Islamist ambitions, and General Basbug met again on Sunday. Some analysts say the fact lines of communication are still open between the two is a sign relations will never again deteriorate to the lows of past decades. The military has overthrown four governments in Turkey in the past 50 years. But its 2007 “e-coup” backfired, fueling an increase in support for the AK Party. So far the effect of the political turmoil on markets has been measured. The stock market fell some 7 percent during the week and the lira lost 2.6 percent to the dollar. Bonds weakened only slightly and credit default swaps were little affected. Protracted tension would pile pressure on markets. “Neither side should be dragging each other into this, just at a time when Turkey was about to receive investment grade ratings for its bonds, or when it has vital work to do to revive its EU membership process,” said Pope. “The two sides have to live with each other, neither side can win this,” he added.
