You never know. That's the beauty of decisions being made by people in the television business. Anything can happen. Because they don't know. What is it, exactly, that they don't know? They don't know how to make a guaranteed hit. They don't know what you like - or people younger or older or a different color than you. They don't know what will work for rival networks. They don't know what the best night is for some of their shows. They don't know whether to launch a show in the fall, when it's crowded, or in midseason, when it's less crowded but viewers already have full plates. They don't always know what they're getting when they see a script and order a pilot. They don't always know what they're going to get in the future after they buy the pilot. It's a thrill ride of loneliness being a network entertainment president, because there is no bible on how things work. It's often fretful, regretful work. Except this week. The broadcast networks are in New York at the so-called upfronts, where they present their 2008-09 schedule to advertisers and media in the hope of getting a lot of advertising dollars and sizzling hype. It is the ultimate in fresh starts, big dreams and hope. All of which lasts about a month until critics begin seeing the pilots in June. Then the two sides meet in Los Angeles in July in a battle of spin versus immovable bluntness. Ah, but right now? Bliss. Take CBS for example. Last season new(ish) Entertainment President Nina Tassler wanted to shake things up at relatively staid CBS. The network under Les Moonves had made all of its hay on crime-and-punishment procedurals and multicamera comedies with boisterous laugh tracks. Risk taking it was not. The network made news by bringing back a series it had canceled (“Jericho”) after a much-publicized Internet-fueled fan campaign got loads of media attention. Now, remember that “Jericho” itself was not a prototypical CBS series: It was a post-apocalyptic thriller, and that's why it didn't work. But media attention and CBS being linked to that newfangled Internet proved too alluring. Tassler also added a Brit-import musical -- yes, musical -- drama called “Viva Laughlin” and a sitcom, “Welcome to the Captain” that was the kind of thing Fox used to run before Fox wanted to be CBS Lite. Plus a drama about ‘70s urban swingers called “Swingtown.” Then there was the controversial reality series “Kid Nation.” Who knew CBS was going to be that daring? Critics were certainly surprised (and a bit confused). But change is good, right? Not at CBS. “Jericho” came back with even worse ratings. “Kid Nation” brought CBS nothing but bad headlines and grief. “Viva Laughlin” was a terrible joke that got canceled. Nobody watched “Welcome to the Captain.” And “Swingtown” has been moved entirely out of the TV season and will air in the summer, as CBS burns off what it ended up not believing in. Who wants to bet that CBS ratchets down the boldness this coming season? This is not to pick on one network alone. All had issues this season, and not all of those can be blamed on the strike. ABC continued to strike out on comedies: “Carpoolers” and “Cavemen.” A couple of shows that deserve better than their probable fate are “Miss/Guided” and “Notes From the Underbelly.” They are “bubble shows,” a term that gains favor about this time of year. Being “on the bubble” means your destiny can go either way: renewal or cancellation. There are a lot of bubble shows out there, including “Eli Stone” and “Cashmere Mafia” on ABC; “Moonlight” and “Rules of Engagement” on CBS; “Reaper” and “Aliens in America” on the CW; and “Unhitched,” “Back to You,” “New Amsterdam” and “Canterbury's Law” on Fox. NBC jumped early on its new 52-week season, so the confirmed casualties include “Bionic Woman,” “Journeyman,” “Las Vegas” and “Quarterlife,” among others. Of course “Quarterlife” was canceled roughly 15 minutes into its first episode, effectively silencing talk that Internet-based series can successfully cross over to television. But who knew until they tried, right? This partial list of bubble shows features mostly freshmen series. That's because networks almost always struggle - sometimes right up until the minute they announce their schedule - with what veteran series to bring back. Owing to the theory that nobody really knows what they're doing, it's impossible to state with any assurance that “Boston Legal” on ABC or “Shark” and “The Unit” on CBS will come back. Hell, “According to Jim” was supposed to be dead last year, but ABC brought out the electronic paddles. Next season? Doubtful. But who knows? The tough truth of the business is that new shows that haven't really proven themselves - whether strike shortened or not having hit their creative stride or generated buzz - are often abandoned for new, unproven series. Why? Because you don't know what you've got until you unleash it on the world. Could be a bomb, could be a hit, who knows? If this all seems strangely unscientific, it is (despite the overabundance of data available to networks about their audience). As a prime example, take “Scrubs.” NBC has given up on it, abandoned it, even during its alleged final season. But ABC - the network whose studio produced it - is going to pick it up. Why? Because of the syndication windfall that will come from completing more episodes and having a tidy ending. ABC is also reportedly interested in CBS' sitcom “The New Adventures of Old Christine,” if CBS passes this week. So, here's a good question: Has CBS decided yet? After all, the network is supposed to unveil its new schedule Wednesday. But, like so many other shows on the five broadcast networks, futures are in doubt or cloaked in secrecy. Sometimes producers don't know if their shows live or die until minutes before the dog and pony show begins in New York. You've probably figured out why, right? - San Francisco Chronicle __
